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NOVOX International Financial Information

[Trump proposes to postpone the U.S. election in 2020, but was opposed by congressmen from both parties] 

U.S. President Trump proposed on Thursday to postpone the U.S. election on November 3, but he was immediately confronted by Congressional Democrats and his own Republicans. The U.S. Congress is the only institution that has the authority to make this change.


[The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9% in the second quarter, which is the largest decline since the Great Depression]

[The number of first-time jobless claims in the United States rose slightly to 1.43 million last week, increasing for the second consecutive week, and still more than double the worst week during the last recession]

[According to foreign media reports, the U.S. Senate failed to extend the weekly unemployment benefit of $200 in advance]

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

09:50

JPY


Jobs/applications ratio (Jun)

 

11:00

CNY

 

 

Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

  

 

19:00

EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul) 

  

 

22:30

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) (May)

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

Institutional analysis: traders began to sell US dollars but the downside is expected to be limited

With the end of the "risk event" of the Fed's interest rate decision, traders began to continue to sell US dollars in preparation for possible changes in the Fed in September. The current market expects the Fed to make a major change at the next meeting. It is expected that the Fed will launch a new monetary framework by then, which may include targeting average inflation and strengthening forward-looking guidance. However, due to the poor performance of some emerging market currencies, such as the Turkish lira, Mexican peso, Brazilian real, etc., this is not exactly a dollar bear market. The next stage of the dollar's decline may be even more bumpy.

Danske Bank: The euro against the dollar may break through 1.20


NOVOX International Financial Information


Danske Bank’s research department emphasized on Thursday that the euro has room to extend its recent gains against the dollar, and may break through 1.20. The weakening of the broad-based U.S. dollar continued to dominate the foreign exchange market in July. Earlier this month, we significantly raised the 1-3 month EURUSD target to 1.16. This goal has now been confirmed. The EURUSD briefly exceeded 1.18. The recent trend appears to be complete after yesterday's Fed meeting. .

We emphasized on July 6 that inflation trends in the United States and the world will be a key factor driving the euro against the dollar. The Fed appears firm, which reflects the risk of the euro breaking through 1.20 against the dollar this fall. We believe that the previous 1-3 month forecast of 1.16 has significant upside risks.

Bank of America: The downward triangle of USD/JPY suggests that the downtrend may continue, and the target points to 100.72


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The Bank of America (BofA) released a research report saying that if the dollar against the yen closes below 105.39/104.47 this week, it will open the door to further down the 100.72 low. USD/JPY has fallen below the 106 mark, but if it has closed below 105.39 for two consecutive weeks, this will create a bigger bearish situation. However, there are still bulls still resisting before the final break below 104.47, which is why we saw no strong selling after the break below 106. Nonetheless, the downward triangle state has hinted that the currency pair may go further lower, and the target may look towards 100.72 or even 94.85.


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