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[Federal Reserve FOMC statement and key points of Fed Chairman Powell's conference]
Policy tool: extend the central bank's repurchase and swap quota to March 31 next year, and purchase assets at the current rate;
Expenditure indicators: Household expenditure seems to have recovered half of the previous decline, but corporate fixed investment has not yet recovered;
Economic situation: The high-frequency data since mid-June shows that the economic recovery has slowed down, and the future is very uncertain;
Interest rate level: Continue to maintain the interest rate range at a low level until the Fed is confident that the economy can return to the right track;
Employment status: Employment has rebounded but is still lower than the level at the beginning of this year, and recovery still has a long way to go;
New crown epidemic: The new crown pneumonia virus poses a considerable risk, and the path of economic development depends on the development of the epidemic;
Fiscal policy: The US fiscal response is strong, rapid and extensive, and more fiscal policies are needed;
Interest rates and inflation: No interest rate hikes were considered at all. Long-term inflation expectations are fairly stable, and the epidemic has significantly affected inflation.

[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves last week decreased by 10.611 million barrels to 526 million barrels] 

From the United States to the week of July 24, US domestic crude oil production remained at 11.1 million barrels per day. In addition to the strategic reserves of commercial crude oil imports last week was 5.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 795,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and exports increased by 218,000 barrels per day to 3.211 million barrels per day.


[U.S. White House Chief of Staff Meadows: Not yet close to reaching a stimulus agreement, it is expected that additional unemployment benefits will expire]


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

04:30

USD

 

FOMC Press Conference

 

17:55

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change (Jul)

  

 

18:00

EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

  

 

22:30

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Fed interest rate decision market commentary


NOVOX International Financial Information


Imperial Bank of Canada: The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement is generally as expected. Policymakers believe that economic activity and employment are still far below pre-pandemic levels. It seems that the Fed seems to be waiting for the September meeting, when the Fed will provide new economic expectations and provide more specific forward-looking guidance for future interest rate hikes, which may anchor the results of specific macro variables. The US GDP data for the second quarter to be released tomorrow can be used as a starting point for assessing the size of the economic output gap.

Toews, CEO of consulting firm Toews Corp.: The market had expected that the Fed would do its best to support the market, and the Fed did not disappoint the market in this regard. If the market falls into turmoil in the next few months, the Fed’s ability to support the market will be tested. Especially if the market is still falling when the Fed is buying bonds, "it will be a huge selling point."

Barrett, American interest rate and foreign exchange analyst: Fed Chairman Powell avoided the issue of negative interest rates and did not mention the possibility of changing his mind to embrace negative interest rates. However, the federal funds rate futures market shows that bets on the possibility of a negative interest rate by the Federal Reserve have always existed.

Bank of America: Pound may fall due to Brexit and seasonal adverse factors


NOVOX International Financial Information


Bank of America strategists said that the pound may maintain its downward trend until the end of the year due to “entangled in the quagmire of Brexit negotiations”, loose monetary policy and seasonal underperformance; Kamal Sharma wrote in a research report on Wednesday that we do not agree that the pound has been The greatly underestimated market argument is a long-standing view and a key assumption that supports our bearish view. The pound's weakness is most pronounced in the pound against the Swiss franc and the euro against the pound; strategists now expect the euro against the pound to end at 0.92 and the pound against the dollar at the end of the year to 1.17.

Relative monetary policy heralds the weakening of the British pound against the Swiss franc, and the Bank of England’s balance sheet has expanded relative to the Swiss National Bank. Compared with the United States, the UK’s monetary policy uncertainty is still higher than before March, indicating that Brexit is still a drag on the pound, which is different from the impact of Covid-19. Although a no-deal Brexit will have the most direct macro and foreign exchange effects (pound to dollar at 1.10; euro to pound at 0.95), a basic trade agreement will mean that the pound will fall in 2021. Since 2004, the pound trade-weighted index has “underperformed on average for four out of the five months from August to December”.



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NOVOX International Financial Information