[The Republicans in the U.S. Senate rejected the party’s proposal for a $1 trillion COVID-19 aid plan. The day before, Senate Majority Leader McConnell announced the proposal]
[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 6.829 million barrels to 531 million barrels last week]
In the week of July 24, API gasoline inventories increased by 1.083 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 187,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.144 million Barrels, the US crude oil imports fell by 1.3 million barrels per day last week.
【Consulting Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index of 92.6 in the United States in July, a drop more than expected】
This index is an important leading indicator, but from the published data, it is obvious that there will be no “V”-shaped recovery in the economy. The increase in new coronary pneumonia cases has shaken the confidence of the US market in the economic outlook.
Summary of Institutional Perspectives UBS: It is expected that there may be no progress at the Fed policy meeting this week
Fed officials are waiting for more information about the epidemic that has put the economy in trouble. Although there has been a surge in new confirmed cases in the United States since the June meeting, the Fed has not revealed that it urgently needs to pass forward-looking guidance to provide further easing information. The current interest rate is close to zero and the Fed has no intention of entering negative interest rates, but the Fed can indicate to the market that it will not raise interest rates until certain targets such as unemployment or inflation are reached.
Barclays: The U.S. dollar is "far" from losing its reserve currency status
Michael Krupkin, Barclays Americas G-10 spot exchange director, said that given the depth of the capital market and the huge volume of global dollar-denominated transactions, (the United States) is still far from losing its reserve currency status. Reserve managers and investors have accumulated US dollar assets for most of the past few years. With recent developments, they have carefully chosen to diversify their investments into assets with less dollar-denominated exposure. However, Krupkin expects that the dollar will depreciate in the short term as the current rebalancing momentum with the withdrawal of the dollar continues.
United Overseas Bank: The next resistance of the euro against the dollar is expected to be at 1.1830
Yesterday, the euro surged to a high of 1.1781 against the US dollar and closed at 1.1751, up 0.83%. Today, the euro may continue to strengthen, but the severe overbought situation shows that the upward trend is slowing down. The next major resistance is at 1.1830, but it may be difficult to reach today (smaller resistance at 1.1800). Support is at 1.1725, followed by 1.1690. In the next 1-3 weeks, the severe overbought situation in the short term indicates that the rally that has lasted for about a week and a half may stop soon. However, only a break below 1.1630 can indicate that the current strong upward movement can be slowed down. Before that, the euro may continue to look towards 1.1830 and then towards 1.1950
Scotiabank: Yen may expand its gains against the US dollar due to factors such as poor yields and economic prospects
Scotiabank strategists said that investors should expect the yen to continue its recent gains against the dollar due to differences in actual yields, the departure of the US economic outlook from other countries, and positive technical signals. Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Juan Manuel Herrera pointed out in the report, “We think the chart shows that the US dollar will fall to at least 104 US dollars, and the US dollar may fall to 102 in the next 1-2 months.”
As Japanese institutions withdrew from U.S. Treasury bonds in April and May, this shift "coated at the same time as the decline in both nominal and real yields in the United States. It may persuade Japanese investors that, at least for now, it is better to stay in the country." . The actual 10-year bond yield differential, which is a measure of core inflation, is -0.53% in the United States and -0.17% in Japan. The technical side also supports the yen-dollar exchange rate, because since 1994, the yen has been the second-best month of the year for the yen.