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[U.S. National Economic Adviser Kudlow: Plan to extend the loan program and increase its scale. It is expected that the data in July will be "stable" and the V-shaped recovery may slow down]

[Trump said Moderna's vaccine has entered the third stage, and it is expected that the new coronary pneumonia treatment drugs will soon "come good news"]

 

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

09:50

JPY

 

Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)

 

20:00

GBP

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul)

 

 

22:55

USD

 

 

Redbook (MoM)

 

 

23:00

USD

 

 

S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May)

 

Summary of Institutional Perspectives


ABN AMRO looks ahead to the Fed's interest rate decision:


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Given that the market is functioning well and long-term Treasury yields are still at a low level, there is little need for the Fed to change its wording or position at this stage. In this context, especially as the market waits for the outcome of another fiscal stimulus package, the Fed will remain cautious about the recovery and maintain the federal funds target rate unchanged at 0-0.25% without changing its quantitative value. The easing policy stance. Regarding asset purchases, the Fed will retain the phrase "continue purchases at the current rate to maintain the smooth operation of the market, thereby promoting the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions."

Crédit Agricole: This week the Fed’s decision looks ahead and pays attention to the precursors of policy relaxation, the dollar is expected to be under pressure


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The research department of Credit Agricole Bank of France said on Monday (July 27) that the US dollar is expected to continue to weaken because the Federal Reserve may implement new monetary policy easing. We believe that the outbreak of the new crown epidemic will begin to put pressure on the upcoming US economic data, which may prompt the Fed to deploy more aggressive forward guidance, or even Yield Curve Control (YCC), and further announce policy relaxation at the September meeting.

This week's FOMC meeting may provide important hints on how close we are to the next batch of monetary easing. In fact, any decision makers that are closer to adopting YCC signals may cause the US Treasury yield curve to flatten and the US dollar to fall. In addition, the expectation of the US government's fourth round of fiscal stimulus will support risk sentiment and further pressure the US dollar.

Market analysis: The Fed will hold a policy meeting this Thursday. It is expected that the monetary policy will not change this time. The focus of the market will be on the Fed Chairman Powell's press conference. There are recent signs that the US economic recovery seems to be stagnant, and Powell may adopt more cautious wording to open the door to more actions in September. If it is as expected, then the dollar will accelerate its downward trend, although Thursday’s US GDP data may provide some support for the dollar.


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Mitsubishi UFJ: USD/JPY will return to "on track", there is more room for decline in the future

Mitsubishi UFJ discussed the prospects of USD/JPY on Monday, saying that it will maintain a bearish tendency and will continue to hold short positions in USD/JPY with a target level of 103.80; we have recently frequently emphasized the correlation between USD/JPY and stock market performance. It is already at a very low level, which is not completely unusual. When the market goes out of extreme risk or risk aversion, the correlation of the yen will weaken.



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