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[The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States rose to 1.4 million, ending the consecutive months of decline. Due to the surge in new coronavirus infection cases, the economic reopening plan was suspended]

[CME Group: Increased the margin for COMEX 5000 silver futures by 12.5% to US$9,000 per contract, and lowered the margin for NYMEX September crude oil futures by 8.8% to US$6,200 per contract]

[The European Central Bank criticizes banks for insufficient preparations for benchmark interest rate reforms and ignores the risks associated with the Euribor adjustment]

 The European Central Bank said on Thursday that the banking industry is not fully prepared for benchmark interest rate reforms, ignoring that the Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor) is the current Eurozone contract The fact that the most commonly used benchmark interest rate also ignores the risks associated with the Euribor adjustment, but pays more attention to the transition to the euro short-term interest rate ETR, but the benchmark interest rate reform is closely related to 180 trillion euros (209 trillion US dollars) financial products .


[The new round of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the post-Brexit relationship ended in a deadlock] 

The UK and EU negotiations on the future relationship between the two sides have reached a deadlock. There are still a few weeks before the expectation of an agreement is reached, but neither party has shown any significant effort. Willingness to compromise. After five months of negotiations, the two sides are still deadlocked on the same issues, including fishing rights in British waters, rules to ensure fair competition among companies, and how to resolve disputes arising from the agreement. If no agreement is reached, when Britain officially leaves the EU at the end of the year, tariffs and quotas will be re-implemented. Britain has been pushing for an agreement before the summer, and the EU has set the deadline for the EU leaders summit in October. If an agreement is reached, it will need to be approved by the governments of all EU member states.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

16:00

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

17:30

EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 

 

 

18:30

GBP

 

 

Composite PMI 

 

 

18:30

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Wells Fargo: The US dollar may weaken further after the FOMC meeting

Wells Fargo believes that even if the Federal Reserve maintains its policy at next week's FOMC meeting, the US dollar may still weaken further to benefit the euro and other currencies of the "dollar group". Strategists Mike Schumacher, Zachary Griffiths, and Erik Nelson wrote in a report on Thursday that foreign currencies are gaining momentum and the results of the lackluster FOMC meeting next week may give the green light to the continued weakness of the dollar.

They wrote that any new major policy changes in the form of yield curve control or other forward guidance are more likely to be announced at the September or November meeting. The standstill meeting will bring a slight increase in yields, which may limit the rise of the dollar against the yen and emerging markets. The euro "should be more resilient", and "the net speculative positions of the New Zealand and Canadian dollars in particular look low." Any changes to the forward-looking guidance language may be subject to the "uncertainty of the economic impact of the resurgence of the epidemic".

Bank of America raises its forecast for the euro against the dollar as demand for risky assets increases

Strategists such as Bank of America Ben Rando and Athanasios Vamvakidis wrote in the report that the bank raised its expected target for the euro against the US dollar at the end of the year from 1.05 US dollars to 1.08 US dollars, due to increased investor preference for risky assets and continued weakness in the US dollar. The team raised the third quarter forecast for the euro against the dollar from 1.08 to 1.12; maintaining the forecast for 2021 unchanged at 1.15.

Nevertheless, strategists still maintain a bearish tendency towards the euro against the dollar, largely because of our optimistic view of the dollar, which in turn is based on the pessimistic outlook of the global economy. The current main driver of the dollar’s weakness is still strong. Risk appetite, especially the performance of the US stock market. The team also raised its forecast for USD/JPY at the end of the third quarter from 102 to 104.

Goldman Sachs: the euro is expected to rise nearly 10% against the dollar in the next twelve months

Goldman Sachs analysts provided their views on the outlook for the euro against the dollar. They are expected to rise by nearly 10% in the next twelve months. They are not confident that the dominance of the US asset market in the past 10 years will continue; in addition, Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the euro The dollar will rise to 1.20 by the end of this year

Rabobank: It is advisable to buy euro against pound on dips

Rabobank pointed out that since mid-February, the euro has been steadily rising against the pound, and the three-month target is still expected to be 0.92. It is recommended to buy on dips; the British government has failed to guarantee trade prospects and the number of deaths from new crown pneumonia is high. The impact on confidence has provided a severe background for the UK economy. Considering that the UK maintains a current account deficit, which may trigger additional downward pressure, the pound is a very fragile currency.


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