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[The European Union proposes to reduce the size of grants in the 750 billion euro recovery fund to 390 billion euros] 

In the plan announced by the President of the European Council Charles Michel on Monday, the funding in the form of grants was 390 billion euros, lower than the original plan 500 billion euros and 360 billion euros will be issued in the form of low-interest loans. The new plan aims to break the deadlock between the fiscally conservative Nordic countries and the majority of member countries that want to help southern European countries. If an agreement can finally be reached, it will mark an unprecedented deepening of EU financial integration.

[Chief Economist of the Bank of England: The current view is still a "V"-shaped recovery] 

Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, stated in a written testimony to the Finance Committee: The British economy has bottomed out in mid-April.The "V" shape describes the past, not predictions. Economic activity has recovered for three months, and about half of the economic output has been recovered. Economic output is currently expected to decline by 20%, and the forecast for May is a decline of 25%.



News and Data




MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks





National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)







RBA Meeting Minutes







Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)



Summary of Institutional Perspectives
UBS: Euro may be boosted by EU summit agreement and weak dollar

NOVOX International Financial Information

UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele wrote in a report on Monday that the prospect of European leaders reaching an agreement on a 750 billion euro recovery fund may become a catalyst for the euro and support euro zone stocks and bonds. As the economy rebounds from the trough, the euro will strengthen against the US dollar in the second half of the year; the recent general weakness of the US dollar will continue until the end of the year, and as the economy recovers, the demand for safe havens for the US dollar will continue to decline. In addition, because the Fed cut interest rates, the attractiveness of US yields has weakened; moreover, the uncertainty of the US general election may be negative for the US dollar before the election in November. It is predicted that the euro against the dollar will rise to 1.17 by the end of the year.

Klarity: EU’s new compromise proposal may provide support for the euro exchange rate

Amarjit Sahota, head of Klarity's foreign exchange department, said that the EU's new compromise plan for the 750 billion euros ($858 billion) economic recovery fund may help "build new confidence in the euro zone" and support the euro. The euro against the US dollar is about 1.1436 on Monday. Sahota said on the phone that as market confidence shifts from the United States to Europe, the exchange rate may rise to 1.20 to 1.25 this year; the strong euro and weak pound may drag the dollar weaker in the second half of this year .

Crédit Agricole: The more dovish Bank of Japan has not gained sufficient trust, and the yen's decline will be limited


Crédit Agricole’s research department discussed the outlook for the yen on Monday and expressed a neutral view on the current position of the exchange rate. At the time when the risk appetite improved, the yen’s failure to carry out a meaningful decline seemed to be partly due to the market’s distrust of the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it would adopt further easing policies. In fact, the Bank of Japan held a July interest rate meeting last week. The resolution maintained the current monetary policy unchanged as scheduled.

Maintain the position that the Bank of Japan has turned to a wait-and-see mode. Although this may cause the yen to become more sensitive to external factors such as global risk sentiment, it is also necessary to consider that the central bank has little more aggressive policy space to reduce yen financing. Attractiveness. From this perspective, it is expected that the downside of the yen at its current position is limited, and it is decoupled from the improved global risk appetite, especially when it comes to paying attention to the trend of the dollar against the yen. In short, the dollar itself has lost its risk appetite. Related.

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NOVOX International Financial Information