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[The European Central Bank maintains the stability of the anti-epidemic stimulus policy on the eve of the EU’s 750 billion euro recovery fund consultation meeting, and the interest rate and asset purchase scale remain unchanged]

[Federal Williams: With the surge in infections, the United States is at a serious inflection point, and it is not the time to consider raising interest rates]

[Fed Evans: The economic situation is facing severe challenges. The baseline expects that the US GDP will shrink by 30%-35% in the second quarter, and will rebound strongly in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate is expected to be in the range of 9%-9.5% by the end of the year. The rate is around 6.5%]

[Senior EU official: Can’t ensure agreement reached at EU summit from Friday to Saturday, there are still major differences]

[Saudi Energy Minister: OPEC+ oil production reduction agreement will continue until April 2022, and may be extended if necessary; prepare to take more measures if necessary to cope with the impact of the new coronavirus on the oil market]

[Japan’s U.S. Treasury bonds held in May decreased by US$5.8 billion to US$1.26 trillion, but it remains the United States’ largest creditor country. China’s U.S. debt held in May increased by 10.9 billion U.S. dollars to 1.08 trillion U.S. dollars, the highest in the past three months, and the second largest creditor nation in the United States.]

[Fed data show that as of July 15, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet rose to 7.01 trillion US dollars, compared with 6.97 trillion a week ago]

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

16:00

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

19:00

EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Jun)

 

 

20:00

GBP

 

 

BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

 

22:30

USD

 

 

Building Permits (Jun)

 

 

 

Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Outlook for Credit Suisse EU Summit: Expect the euro to rise against the US dollar, initial goal 1.15


NOVOX International Financial Information


Credit Suisse Research discussed the expectations for the EU summit on Friday; the direction of the euro this week will be driven by macro news, especially the EU leaders' summit to be held from July 17-18. Our basic expectation is that the resistance of the "thrifty and thrifty" will be nominal and ultimately fruitless.

Although the market has set the price of the euro and it will produce greater volatility after the summit, the tendency of the euro position is difficult to break through the fluctuation range within a week. After all, an epoch-making policy change is difficult to be fully priced in a few weeks. As long as the EU leaders signal to the market that they want to cooperate to promote financial support, the euro should try to rise; we have already pointed out that our expectations for the euro against the US dollar 1.15 are only preliminary, we can see that the euro will rise against the dollar To 1.20, and will go higher after some scenarios are realized in late 2020.

Société Générale: Proposal to short GBP/JPY and USD/CHF in the coming weeks


NOVOX International Financial Information


Societe Generale (SocGen) released a research report on Thursday and pointed out that it is recommended to short the pound against the yen and the dollar against the Swiss franc in the next few weeks. The bank's analysts said that the current market trend is no longer a normal period, and it is different from the time when the price of gold is rising and the actual yield is falling. At the same time, the rebound in the stock market also tells us the same situation. Nevertheless, all this comes from the impact of the low Fed policy changes in March, and we have to be optimistic about the performance of the yen and the Swiss franc. Although the yen has been slower than gold, it does not mean it will do nothing.

Shorting GBP to JPY will become an attractive operation. For the Swiss franc, the Swiss National Bank has indicated that it may intervene in the foreign exchange market. Although the market does sell the Swiss franc, we feel that this provides a better opportunity to short the dollar against the Swiss franc.



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NOVOX International Financial Information