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NOVOX International Financial Information

[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels to 545 million barrels last week] 

U.S.-June 19 API gasoline stocks decreased by 3.856 million barrels, refined oil decreased by 2.605 million barrels, and Cushing inventories decreased by 325,000 barrels; Last week crude oil imports increased by 97,000 barrels.


[US Treasury Secretary: Congress may pass a new round of stimulus next month, this year is expected to get rid of the economic recession] 

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that another stimulus bill may be passed in July, we have a lot of liquidity, and the cost of debt is very high Low; the United States may shake off the recession by the end of the year, and infrastructure will not be part of the next stimulus bill.


[Fed Brad: Do not think it necessary to take yield curve control measures] 

Brad said that the yield curve control strategy may not work, given that the market has expected to maintain a low interest rate close to zero in the future, this kind of control yield The curve approach seems unnecessary; at present, there are more questions than answers to this question, and I really think this is inconclusive for the committee because we have expected interest rates to remain low for a long period of time.

 

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Currency

News and Data

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USD

 

 

New Home Sales (May)

 

12:00

NZD

 

 

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

 

12:00

NZD

 

RBNZ Rate Statement  

 

18:00

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Barclays Bank: Sterling is expected to fluctuate widely recently, or depreciate moderately against the euro


NOVOX International Financial Information


The Barclays Bank Research Department discussed the prospects of the pound on Tuesday, marking that by the end of the year, the pound-to-dollar target will be around 1.27, and the euro-sterling will be around 0.91. The bank predicts that the pound will fluctuate widely in the near future. Taking into account the risk of Brexit uncertainty, the pound will depreciate moderately against the euro. The lack of a trade agreement will most likely affect the British economy disproportionately after the epidemic stage, limiting the pound to the global economy. The strength of the rebound in the recovery phase.

Although this phenomenon also has a negative impact on the European Union, the EU Recovery Fund and the large-scale stimulus plan will reduce the risk of the eurozone member states splitting, marking the EU’s first step toward fiscal integration, which is likely to help the euro which performed. However, the fact that the UK is favored by long-term investments in many areas should be able to curb the decline of the pound and help the exchange rate rebound from the current undervalued situation.

Citibank: NZD shorts stand out in G10 shorts, AUD/NZD expected to rise to 1.10-1.15 in the second half of the year


NOVOX International Financial Information


Citibank discussed the forward-looking expectations of the New Zealand Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on the 24th. According to the latest data from Citi’s foreign exchange inflows and position models, in the market where actual funds are short in New Zealand dollars, the current trading orders are bullish Japanese yen and Australian dollars against New Zealand dollars, against British pounds and against US dollars, while New Zealand short orders compare to G10. The currency bills have been extended, and this scene is mainly driven by actual funds.

The Citi Foreign Exchange Strategy Group expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain current interest rates unchanged, but release the dovish tone. It is expected that this resolution will have little impact on the market. In the outlook, maintain the view that the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar rose to the 1.10-1.15 area in the second half of this year.

Credit Suisse: The dollar is expected to lose its appeal to arbitrage investors in the next few years


NOVOX International Financial Information


Credit Suisse said that in the next few years, as the Fed keeps interest rates close to zero, while the growth prospects of other regions improve, the attractiveness of the US dollar as a target currency for investors to carry out arbitrage transactions may decline. John Tai, Chief Investment Officer Woods said on Tuesday that we believe that there are fewer and fewer reasons to hold the US dollar for arbitrage purposes. It is likely that we will see the conversion from US dollar assets to other assets, including those in Asia that provide better growth and profit opportunities;

The dollar spot index has fallen by more than 6% since it hit a high in March, and Deutsche Bank’s G10 foreign exchange arbitrage basket index rose by double digits over the same period. From an indicator point of view, some Asian investors may have begun to reduce investment in the US dollar.

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NOVOX International Financial Information