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NOVOX International Financial Information

[Federal Reserve Rosengren: We are still far from raising interest rates and need to keep interest rates low in the short and long term; the second half of the year may be much more difficult than people expected]

[Bank of Canada Governor McClham: The Bank of Canada will continue to implement quantitative easing until the economic recovery goes smoothly; compared with the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, low oil prices may have a more lasting impact on the world, and GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to be very gratifying 】

[European Central Bank chief economist: The epidemic situation and its impact on the economic future are still highly uncertain] 

The European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said that the European Central Bank’s management committee on the emergency anti-epidemic debt purchase plan (PEPP) will The decision to maintain net purchases in the next 12 months is correct. In any case, the debt purchase will continue until the management committee determines that the crisis has passed; after an unprecedented downturn, with very loose monetary and fiscal policy support, and the global economy Promoted by the prospect that the activity will gradually recover, the euro zone economy is expected to rebound in the second half of the year. However, the speed and scale of this recovery are extremely uncertain.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

17:30

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  

 

18:30

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

18:45

GBP

 

BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

 

21:00

BRL

 

 

BCB Copom Meeting Minutes  


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

United Overseas Bank: The US dollar has topped, the market outlook is expected to fall further


NOVOX International Financial Information


UOB pointed out that as the global economic recovery progresses in the second half of this year, the US dollar may fall further. The US dollar seems to have peaked in March. Among the major currencies, risky currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are strong against the US dollar in the second quarter Rebounded and completed a V-shaped rebound from the March low; the US dollar index appeared to peak at 103 in March and fell back to 96 in mid-June, with the exception of the Indonesian rupiah and the Thai baht, the rise of Asian currencies against the US dollar in the second quarter Compared with major currencies, the US dollar is expected to continue to decline gradually in the future market. With the global economic recovery continuing to fluctuate, major currencies such as the Euro and the Australian dollar are expected to consolidate recent gains against the US dollar in the second half of the year, and Asian foreign exchange against the US dollar is expected to further Stronger, but the pace will be more sustained; the key warning for the broad view that the dollar is gradually weakening from now on is that the second wave of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic may easily subvert the current relative stability of the financial market and bring a new one The volatility of the round caused the dollar to strengthen again.

Nordic Union Bank: lowered the euro-dollar midline multi-single entry to 1.1050


NOVOX International Financial Information


The Nordic Union Bank Research Department made a fourth round of strategic adjustments to the euro-dollar midline opening on June 1st, moving the entry point from the 1.1100 mark to the 1.1050 level; the target position remains unchanged at 1.1670, and the stop loss The bit remains unchanged at 1.0780. The bank explained that if globalist French President Macron’s vision of the EU blueprint can be realized, the next stage of EU fiscal integration will deepen and cross-border economic solidarity will be broader.

If the EU recovery fund and economic rescue plan are implemented, how much boost will the euro bring? This tail risk is likely to be seen in the result of how much the euro has risen above 1.20 against the dollar. However, compared with the performance of Norwegian krone, Swedish kronor and Australian dollar, the trend of the euro may need to be more keenly feedback that the market has passed the peak of the epidemic. Panic stage.

Citibank: Sterling underperforms due to lagging recovery


NOVOX International Financial Information


It is expected that the pound will be around 1.25 against the dollar in the next three months. If the unemployment rate remains high, it may lead to an increase in the savings rate and a weak rebound, which will put the pound under pressure. Our bank believes that, as uncertainty continues, the Bank of England is expected to no longer rule out the possibility of implementing negative interest rates. If the United Kingdom withdraws from the single market and customs union at the end of this year, more quantitative easing and fiscal easing may be the first line of defense against the economic downturn. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points by November and increase the QE scale by 50 billion pounds, and will implement negative interest rates and deepen QE next summer.


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NOVOX International Financial Information