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NOVOX International Financial Information

[Trump holds the first campaign rally after the outbreak]

① On the evening of June 20 local time, US President Trump's highly-regarded election rally ended in Oklahoma. This rally is Trump's first major campaign rally since the spread of the new crown epidemic in the United States;

② During the rally, Trump gave a speech of about 1 hour and 40 minutes, which involved many topics; he praised the people who attended the rally as "warriors", and pointed out that the new crown virus detection is a "double-edged sword." Officials have been urged to “slow down the speed of testing” because the more tests, the more confirmed cases;

③ During the rally, Trump also criticized the protesters outside the campaign rally, and tried to destroy the monuments and statues in many places across the United States, linking with the Democratic Party, including the Democratic presidential candidate Biden. He criticized Biden for "keeping silent" about these "barbaric" acts (China News Net)

[The epidemic hits the Greek economy hard, and the tourism industry is expected to lose up to 10 billion euros]

① According to the report of the European Union quoted by the European Union News Agency in Greece, June 19th, local time, the Greek Ministry of Health at a routine press conference of the New Crown Epidemic Situation informed that Greece had cumulatively diagnosed 3237 cases of New Coronary Pneumonia, with a cumulative death toll of 189 people; in addition, the Bank of Greece Data released on the 19th showed that the epidemic severely hit Greece's tourism revenue;

②The European Commission predicts that the Greek economy will shrink by 9.7% this year. Given that tourism directly and indirectly contributes to about 20% of Greece’s GDP, even if there is a risk of a new crown epidemic, Greece will not be able to completely shut out tourists this year;

【The fifth extension of the Argentine debt restructuring negotiations】

①The Ministry of Economy of Argentina confirmed that the debt restructuring negotiations originally scheduled to end on that day were extended again for more than one month, and ended on July 24;

② It is reported that this is the fifth postponement since the negotiation between Argentina and creditors on the debt restructuring plan, and there are still considerable differences between the negotiating parties on the restructuring plan;

③ The Argentine government and two of the three major creditor groups have made great progress, but there is also a tough attitude that requires major changes to the plan;

④In April this year, the Argentine government announced that it was unable to repay its debts and proposed a restructuring plan to creditors. The amount of debt involved in the restructuring negotiations reached approximately US$66.7 billion;



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RBA Governor Lowe Speaks  






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CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun)






BCB Focus Market Readout 

Summary of Institutional Perspectives
French Agricultural Credit Bank: Euro is still overbought against the US dollar EU recovery fund can not reach an agreement to pressure the euro

NOVOX International Financial Information

The French agricultural credit bank CIB discussed the outlook of the euro and expects it to fall further in the near future. The euro has become the worst performing G10 currency since this week, and we believe that the currency pair will continue to suffer in the near future. This is because there is even more concern that EU member states cannot reach a compromise on EU recovery funds, and the market hopes to usher in the Hamilton moment in Europe. In our view, the agreement on the EU recovery fund cannot be reached today, which has led to an increase in the spread of the European Union’s peripheral national debt relative to the German national debt, which will pressure the euro against the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

We further point out that the euro and Australian dollar still look overvalued, while the euro also seems overbought. Our position indicator on Monday showed that the market is already very long EUR. This may cause the euro to fall even if both the Eurozone PMI and German IFO data continue to point to a gradual economic recovery.

Mitsubishi UFJ: short GBPUSD against 1.2100 stop loss at 1.2575

NOVOX International Financial Information

Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (MUFG) position report on Friday (June 19) shows that the new short position in GBPUSD has an entry point of 1.2370, a target of 1.2100 and a stop loss set at 1.2575. The bank's analysts said that our short sterling against the dollar was determined by observing the weak performance of the pound over the past week. The risk of further weakening of the pound in the short term has risen. We tend to short sterling through the US dollar because the US dollar has been severely oversold relative to Eurozone assets, so the potential rebound risk of the US dollar is beneficial to the short position of the British pound against the US dollar.

JPMorgan Chase: Current AUD/USD decline may be limited

NOVOX International Financial Information

Against the backdrop of rising global stock markets and the US presidential election, JP Morgan analysts have forecasted the Australian dollar against the US dollar. The current exchange rate fluctuates according to changes in risk sentiment. The market is worried about the resurgence of the new crown epidemic and the global plan to stimulate the economy to boost the stock market. There is a wrestling between the two parties. From a general perspective, the global launch of economic stimulus plans will dominate, so the AUD/USD decline is limited; looking forward, the market focus will shift from the new crown epidemic to the US presidential election in the next few months. The dollar is related to the market. Sexuality will be reversed from a negative value to a positive value. When the AUD/USD enters a new trading mode, it is expected that there will be unexpected fluctuations that violate the original correlation.

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NOVOX International Financial Information