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NOVOX International Financial Information

[OPEC: Saudi Arabia and other countries voluntarily cut additional production in June, a total of an additional 1.2 million barrels/day] 

OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial supervision committee meeting ended, OPEC issued a statement on its official website. The statement stated that the overall rate of implementation of the production cut in May was 87%, and the country that saw the production reduction rate of less than 100% promised to compensate in July-September. Iraq and Kuwait have submitted their compensation plans, and other countries that have not submitted their plans will be submitted to OPEC Secretary-General Barkindu by next Monday (June 22).


[Fed: In the week of June 17, the overall balance sheet size fell to 7.14 trillion US dollars, the previous week was 7.22 trillion US dollars]
[Fed Meister: It will take a long time for the economy to return to February levels, reiterating that the GDP growth rate at the end of 2020 will be 6% lower than that at the end of 2019. The long-term view of the economic growth rate has not changed due to the epidemic, reiterating the need Very loose Fed policy]

[Russian Energy Minister: May see the balance of the crude oil market before the end of the year]

 Russian Energy Minister Novak said that OPEC+ did not discuss plans for August, and crude oil inventories may be reduced to a five-year average by the end of the year or mid-next year Level. The balance of the crude oil market may be seen before the end of the year. If necessary, it is not excluded to hold an OPEC+special meeting before December.


[CME Group lowered the margins of several varieties] 

CME Group (CME) lowered the initial margin of COMEX 100 gold futures and delivery enhanced gold futures from US$10065/contract to US$9020/contract; lowered the margin of COMEX 5000 silver futures 11.1% to 8000 USD/contract, which was previously 9000 USD/contract.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

11:30

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

 

16:00

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

16:00

EUR

 

 

German PPI (MoM) (May)

 

22:30

CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)



Summary of Institutional Perspectives
TD Securities: The dollar is expected to rebound 2-3% in the near future, mid-term rallies sell off


NOVOX International Financial Information


TD Securities Research discussed the prospects for the US dollar and stated that it will maintain a bullish trend in the near term and sell rallies in the medium term. We continue to expect the US dollar to recover 2-3% in the short term, which should provide a better level of rallies for deeper drawdowns. We tested some trading strategies related to this concept, especially highlighting the benefits of data surprises and growth forecasts for US dollar performance. Different strategies perform differently, and growth strategies perform well in the long run. Combining these strategies underscores our tendency to believe that the recent gains of the New Zealand dollar and the British pound will dissipate and buy the yen on a bargain when the price trend is extreme.
Mitsubishi UFJ: Four reasons for bullish euro-dollar fundamentals


NOVOX International Financial Information


Mitsubishi UFJ’s research department discussed the prospects of the euro against the US dollar and expects the currency pair to find some support near current levels in the coming weeks. At the current node, it is unclear whether the recent top break is the beginning of a more sustained bullish trend for the euro, or another wrong breakthrough like the euro's fall after breaking the intraday high of 1.1495 on March 9.
We believe that the euro has a more solid fundamentals and can continue to rise higher for the following reasons:
1. EU Recovery Fund Plan;
2. The scale of Germany’s 130 billion euro fiscal stimulus is greater than expected;
3. Expansion of the 600 billion euros PEPP plan until the middle of next year, showing that the European Central Bank has expressed its firmer stance on supporting the euro zone economic recovery and the bond market;
4. There is more evidence that the euro zone economy is now recovering from the epidemic as the blockade is relaxed, and the epidemic has not rebounded.
Barclays: slightly raised the target price of the euro against the Swiss franc in the third and fourth quarters to 1.10


NOVOX International Financial Information


Barclays analysts said: We have slightly increased the target price of the euro against the Swiss franc, because the euro zone's recovery plan helps strengthen the consistency of the euro zone's fiscal policy, which will increase the euro against the Swiss franc's short headwind . In the short term, recent moves in the euro area should reduce fiscal policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the global economic recovery, the potential threat of future outbreaks, the existence of risk conditions such as the US election and Brexit, I believe that the Swiss franc will still maintain a moderate appreciation in the medium term. The Swiss National Bank should intervene in the exchange rate to avoid an excessive rise in the Swiss franc once risk sentiment is suppressed.


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NOVOX International Financial Information