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NOVOX International Financial Information

[EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 1.215 million barrels to 539.3 million barrels]

 EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 1.667 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreased by 1.358 million barrels in the week to June 12; commercial crude oil except strategic reserves Imports last week were 6.642 million barrels/day, a decrease of 222,000 barrels/day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 23,000 barrels/day to 2.462 million barrels/day last week. Last week, US domestic crude oil production fell by 600,000 barrels to 10.5 million barrels per day. : As of June 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 1.7 million barrels to 651.7 million barrels.


[Fed Chairman Powell told members of Congress that because the US economy cannot fully recover before the coronavirus epidemic is under control, the Fed will use "various tools" to buffer the impact of the epidemic on families and businesses. The US economy is in the early stages of starting a recovery. The Fed did not consider putting down tools for a long time, and will not end emergency tools soon. The Fed plans to "step on the accelerator" before the United States embarks on the road to recovery. Powell reiterated that the Fed did not consider raising interest rates and the recovery of the US economy will take some time]

[Fed Fed Meister: The US unemployment rate is expected to be about 9% by the end of 2020, and the second quarter GDP is expected to record the largest quarterly decline since the record. The US economic recovery has a long way to go and requires a long period of time. Implement a very loose policy]

[OPEC: The epidemic will continue to put pressure on crude oil demand in the second half of the year] 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that due to the continued economic impact of the new crown epidemic, oil demand will remain "under pressure" in the second half of this year; The international oil market will be evaluated. OPEC pointed out in the latest monthly oil market report that although the global economy will "recover gradually", it cannot compensate for the sharp decline in the first six months of this year. Slow flight recovery will limit fuel consumption, and high unemployment will also curb gasoline consumption.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

11:30

AUD

 

 

Employment Change (May)

 

 

17:30

CHF

 

 

SNB Interest Rate Decision

 

21:00

GBP

 

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

22:30

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims



Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Citibank: The Bank of England resolution on Thursday is expected to have no surprises, keep the bearish pound


NOVOX International Financial Information


Citibank expects that the Monetary Policy Committee will not provide any surprises to the market, will keep bank interest rates unchanged, and at the same time expand the current 200 billion pounds quantitative easing plan (QE) capital purchase scale, in line with economists' expectations. The bank remains bearish on the pound. This monetary policy meeting is unlikely to cause sterling fluctuations in the near future, unless the negative interest rate (NIRP) risk is strongly materialized-cutting the bank interest rate to 0, so that the interest rate of the TFSME borrowing interest rate will actually fall to a negative value. In this area, the non-operating deposit (NOD) interest rate is close to a negative value.

TD Securities: Maintain strategic bullish USD, short NZD against USD


NOVOX International Financial Information


TD Securities Research discussed the recent market environment and stated that it maintains a strategically bullish dollar and holds short positions in New Zealand dollars against the dollar in the model portfolio with a target of 0.61. The market wants to boost risk sentiment, but it lacks new momentum. With the NZD/USD trend showing overbought, we believe that the exchange rate is more sensitive to bad news under the above background; this is not to say that in the long run, the bad prospects of the US dollar will be reversed, but the short-term continuous sell-off The threshold is increased.

Danske Bank: It is expected that the target price of USD/CAD for one month and three months will be at 1.38


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Danske Bank (Danske) released a research report that pointed out that the one-month and three-month target price of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is at 1.38. In the short term, the global environment plays a key role in promoting the potential downside risk of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Overall, we still believe that the global economy is biased downward. The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates to 0.25%, and has also launched lending programs and asset purchase programs, including provincial government and corporate bonds. As far as the Canadian dollar is concerned, we believe that the global economic situation needs the most attention.


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NOVOX International Financial Information