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NOVOX International Financial Information

[Bank of Japan launches SME loan plan]
The Bank of Japan held a temporary financial policy meeting on the 22nd to launch a new loan plan to provide financing to small and medium-sized enterprises through financial institutions. The total size is 30 trillion yen. In addition to the implemented loans and the purchase of corporate bonds, the Bank of Japan has responded The total scale of the corporate capital turnover assistance policy launched by the new crown epidemic reached 75 trillion yen;

[JP Morgan Chase expects the unemployment rate in the United States to reach at least 10% by early 2021]
1. JPMorgan economists believe that the rate of recovery of the United States from the coronavirus epidemic will be lower than previously expected. They lowered their forecasts for economic growth in 2021 and expected the unemployment rate to be at least 10% by the first quarter of next year;

2. JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli and others wrote in a research report that in order to curb the spread of coronavirus, the state's epidemic blockade will lead to an unprecedented shrinkage of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter by 40%, and Gradually recover

3. However, the researchers quoted another report of JPMorgan Chase, saying that the economic growth rate will be weaker than the previous forecast by 2021, due to damage to the balance sheet, state and local spending cuts, higher savings rates and more Temporary layoffs become permanent dismissal

[Tokyo Olympics extra charge caused controversy]
1. Xinhua News Agency reported that the International Olympic Committee President Bach admitted for the first time this week that if the one-year extension of the Tokyo Olympics cannot be held in 2021, it will be cancelled. Behind this, the "endless" economic account brought about by the postponement of the Olympic Games has undoubtedly become an important reason that cannot be bypassed;

2. In late April, the International Olympic Committee and the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee had discrepancies due to the problem of the representation of extra costs; the latest statement of the International Olympic Committee stated that it would allocate a maximum of 800 million US dollars (1 US dollar is about 7 yuan) for the Tokyo Olympic The impact of the postponed epidemic, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee said it is still accounting for costs

[Australia officially suspended bidding for the 2032 Olympics]

Australia Today reported that because of the impact of the epidemic, the Queensland Government of Australia officially suspended the bid for the 2032 Olympic Games. They originally wanted to bid with Brisbane as the bidder, and the Australian Olympic Committee has already approved their actions. 



GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

All day

USD

 

United States - Memorial Day

 

All day

GBP

 

United Kingdom - Bank Holiday

 

16:00

EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

18:00

EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

UniCredit Bank: The euro is expected to benefit from a weaker dollar in the next few days



The optimism about vaccine research and development, the rebound in oil prices, and the EU-Recovery Fund proposed by Germany and France have boosted risk appetite in recent days. As long as these three factors have remained good, the US dollar may continue to be under pressure; In addition, in the next few days The upcoming "possibly poor" economic data is expected to bring additional pressure on the US dollar. The euro is expected to benefit from a weaker US dollar in the next few days; the target price of the euro against the US dollar is expected to be 1.10 by the end of the second quarter.

Mitsubishi UFJ: Yen will rise against sterling as Japanese retail investors lift sterling bulls



Foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group expects the yen to rise further against the British pound as talks of negative interest rates in the UK cause Japanese retail investors to sell the pound. Global market research director Derek Halpenny and foreign exchange analyst Lee Hardman wrote in a report on Friday: Speculation about the UK ’s negative interest rates may trigger selling in the Japanese retail market, where market participants have established a large number of long positions outside Japan The decline in the yield is a key supporting factor for the yen, and if the UK ’s negative interest rate speculation continues, it will increase downward pressure. They suggested shorting the pound against the yen at 131.25 with a target of 126.60 and a stop loss of 134.10 yen; they also said that the short sterling may have been crowded; the bank continued to be bullish on the yen, despite the poor performance in recent weeks.

CIBC: Canadian dollar gains may be unsustainable, USD / CAD is expected to rise to 1.43 in the third quarter



The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) discussed the prospects of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar during the day, and expects the currency pair to rise to 1.43 in the third quarter. The modest rebound in crude oil prices over the past two weeks has given the Canadian dollar some of the weakness relative to the outbreak of the outbreak in mid-March, but oil prices are still low, and the trend of funds returning to risky assets also looks fragile. So we don't think the Canadian dollar will remain strong in the near future. The current market pricing may be too optimistic. Based on the fact that stock returns are declining and the potential for the second wave of the epidemic, the rebound in oil prices may stop abruptly, causing the USD / CAD to rise to 1.41 in June and to 1.43 in the third quarter.


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