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[Federal Reserve Kashkali: Unemployment data underestimates real losses, the current actual unemployment rate is expected to be 24% or 25%; the economy is a V-shaped recovery is "impossible", before confidence in health is restored, the economic recovery Will be sluggish; the recovery is expected to continue for a long time and the unemployment rate will slowly decline]

[As of the week of May 9, the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States increased by 2.98 million] 

As the US economy continues to be affected by the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has remained at millions of people for the eighth consecutive week . Although the number of initial jobless claims has fallen for the sixth consecutive week, since the outbreak in mid-March caused companies to close, there have been a total of 36.5 million applications for unemployment benefits, which is close to the number of unemployment benefits applied for during the 18 months of the last recession.

[Petro-Logistics: May to date OPEC + cut crude oil exports by 5.96 million barrels per day] 

Petro-Logistics, an oil transportation consultancy, said that 14 days before May, crude oil exports from 13 OPEC member countries were higher than those from April. The data decreased by 4.85 million barrels per day. In the same period, the oil exports of 10 non-OPEC countries also declined, which was 1.105 million barrels per day lower than the April data.

[The latest data shows that as of May 13, the total size of the Fed ’s balance sheet was US $ 6.98 trillion, compared with US $ 6.77 trillion in the same period last week]



News and Data




BoC Gov Poloz Speaks 





German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)





Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)





Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Deutsche Bank: Trump's "strong dollar" theory reflects unusual times

Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research report on Thursday that US President Trump believes that it is a good time to hold a strong dollar, reflecting the unusual economic and financial environment fueled by the Covid-19 epidemic. He said: “Considering the unprecedented demand / deflation shocks, we are living in an unusual era in which the exchange rate will have a limited impact on trade, and the correlation in terms of inflation is equally limited”

Before the epidemic caused the economic shutdown, Trump may object to the strengthening of the US dollar in order to promote increased net exports, but currently "price exchange rate-related price competitiveness is among the least faced by US exports. Ruskin said he said It ’s a great time to have a strong / stable dollar because it requires anything that emphasizes the confidence of US policies and institutions, and the weak dollar is easily interpreted as an imminent policy constraint and a sign of weakening US financial strength.

Nonetheless, "if the current fiscal deficit pushes the current account deficit to greatly expand and exceeds the range of -2% to -3% we have seen since the 2008 crisis," the dollar may be adversely affected. That would indicate "a real" double deficit "problem, not just that, like many other countries, this would be an unprecedented fiscal gap."

Bank of America says the market cannot "force" the Fed to implement negative interest rates

Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana and Olivia Lima wrote a report saying that although the market has shown that it can push the Fed to adopt "several policies," the negative interest rate situation is "fundamentally different." Strategists believe that the market “cannot force” the Fed to adopt negative interest rates; negative interest rates have a “significant impact” on the financial system and financial intermediaries.

Operational obstacles include negative IOER, the US Treasury auction system and the legality of money market funds. Negative interest rates will hinder the key financial intermediary functions of banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and other institutions; it will also damage the profitability of banks, and pension funds and insurance companies may have difficulty managing larger liabilities. The financial industry currently does not seem to be prepared for negative interest rates, and it may take at least six months to a year to prepare for such policies. For now, "the Fed's position is very clear: even if there is a downside economic risk, they do not support negative interest rates."

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