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NOVOX International Financial Information

[API report: US crude oil inventories increased by 7.58 million barrels to 526.2 million barrels last week] As of May 8, API gasoline inventories in the United States decreased by 1.91 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 4.71 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 2.26 million barrels. ; US crude oil imports increased by 141,000 barrels / day last week.

[EIA short-term energy outlook report: WTI crude oil price is expected to be US $ 30.1 / barrel in 2020, which was previously expected to be US $ 29.34 / barrel; Brent crude oil price is expected to be US $ 34.13 / barrel in 2020, and was previously expected to be US $ 33.04 / barrel. The 2020 global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be reduced by 2.9 million barrels / day to -8.13 million barrels / day. The total global crude oil consumption is expected to be 92.59 million barrels / day in 2020, which was previously expected to be 95.52 million barrels / day. The US crude oil output is expected to be 11.69 million barrels / day in 2020, which was previously expected to be 11.76 million barrels / day. The expected growth rate of US crude oil demand in 2020 is -219 million barrels per day, which was previously expected to be -1.33 million barrels per day]

[OPEC + source: OPEC + hopes to maintain oil production cut at 9.7 million barrels / day after June, instead of reducing]

[Federal Barking: The economy may have bottomed out and there will be a rebound momentum. It is expected that the United States may experience stagflation, but deflation is not expected. Economic growth will rebound in the second half of 2020, and the Fed has plenty of room to expand more. Financial assistance]

[U.S. monthly budget deficit reaches 737.9 billion US dollars, a record high]

[CME Raises WTI Crude Oil Futures June Contract Margin to 12,000 USD / Hand Contract] Finance Association May 13th, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): Increases WTI Crude Oil Futures June Contract Margin by 20% to 12,000 USD / Hand contract, which was previously 10,000 USD / hand contract.

[Martin Schegel, alternate member of the Swiss National Bank's Management Committee: The Swiss National Bank can further cut interest rates when needed]

[Indian Prime Minister Modi announced an economic stimulus plan worth 20 trillion rupees, accounting for about 10% of GDP]


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

12:00

NZD

 

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

 

16:00

GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

16:00

GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar)

 

22:30

USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Apr)

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

ABN AMRO: The US dollar may still rise in the near term, but the long-term outlook deteriorates



NOVOX诺亚国际专业的外汇交易平台


A new study by ABN AMRO shows that the dollar is expected to outperform other currencies in the short term, supported by the risk aversion sentiment related to the epidemic. Unexpected economic recovery, a new round of outbreaks, or tight international trade relations are the factors behind the dollar; however, the Fed's large-scale QE is its negative factor. In addition, there may be a strong and lasting economic recovery in 2021, and risk aversion may subside, which will cause the long-term outlook of the US dollar to deteriorate.

 

United Overseas Bank: Sterling weakens against the dollar, there is still room to close below 1.2240





NOVOX诺亚国际专业的外汇平台


United Overseas Bank said that the British pound has recently trended lower against the US dollar, and the intraday close below 1.2240 is still far away. The bank emphasized that the exchange rate closed at 1.2390 last Friday. It is expected that the 1.2644 front line will form a short-term roof, but it is still too early to maintain the view that it continues to decline. The pound is more likely to be in the 1.2280-1.2500 area in the near future. The pound is gradually pushing towards the bottom of the trading range. 1.2280 is not actually expected. The price trend has led to a rapid pick up of kinetic energy. If the pound closes below 1.2240 tonight, it will reveal a continued downward trend; this stage of this trend is not expected to rise, but think that as long as the exchange rate on these two trading days Continued above 1.2410, the outlook will improve.



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