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International Financial Information

International Financial Information

[Preventing the export of 3M masks, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau warns of retaliation] 
①The British Independent reported that the government ordered the medical equipment manufacturer 3M of Minnesota to stop exporting protective masks to Canada and exporting it to Canada; Many warned that it may decide to take retaliatory measures at the same time. . (Securities Times) 

[Global oil storage capacity is nearing its peak, with news that OPEC + is considering reducing production by 10%] 
An OPEC source said that OPEC and its allies are working to reach an unprecedented production reduction agreement, the size of which is equivalent to global supply About 10% of the amount. The Air Force and the President of the United States continue to increase oil-producing countries to prevent the market plunge caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. 

[French Ministry of Defense: 600 French soldiers infected with new coronavirus] According to CNN, French Defense Minister Florent Parry announced on Saturday (April 4) that 600 French soldiers Infected with new coronavirus. 

[A new crack appears between Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC + meeting will be redirected] 
OPEC + meeting to end the oil price war is unlikely to happen next Monday as before. On the issue of who should be responsible for the plunge in oil prices, Saudi Arabia and Russia fought a war of words; a representative said that OPEC + needs more time to negotiate, but the meeting may still be antique a few days later.

[FIFA: It is recommended to postpone all competitions in June and determine the age standard for the men ’s football in the Olympic Games to be adjusted to U24] The FIFA Task Force during the epidemic issued a statement on the official website on the 3rd to propose a response plan for multiple events during the outbreak, including recommendations Postponing all international football matches in June and determining the age of men ’s football at the Tokyo Olympics can be relaxed to 24 years old. (Xinhua News Agency)

[The EU decided to temporarily exempt medical supplies and personal protective equipment from tariffs and VAT.] 
In order to combat the new crown epidemic, the European Commission decided on the 3rd to temporarily exempt medical supplies and personal protective equipment imported from outside the EU from tariffs and VAT. This will help reduce the price of masks, ventilators and other urgently needed materials entering the EU market. The European Commission said that the effective date of this decision dates back to January 30, initially for a period of 6 months, and may be extended in the future. (Xinhua News Agency)

[According to a person familiar with the matter, the new release date of May ’s official sales price in May has not yet been determined, and may be postponed until Tuesday or Thursday.] 

The state-owned oil giant is postponing its announcement, waiting for OPEC to hold a meeting on Thursday. Discuss the level of crude oil production after the collapse of demand due to coronavirus. A diplomatic attack between Saudi Arabia and Russia is opening a new rift between the world ’s two largest oil exporters and jeopardizing the production cut agreement. This will be the second consecutive month that Aramco postponed key pricing announcements, more than the traditional announcement before the 5th of this month. Price deadline. Since other Persian Gulf oil producers often follow Aramco ’s to set prices for their own transportation, the pricing decision may affect regional oil exports of about 14 million barrels per day.



News and Data



German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb)



Construction PMI (Mar)



BCB Focus Market Readout 



CPI (YoY) (Mar)

Summary of Institutional Perspectives

Economists expect the worst quarterly contraction in the US economy
Economists say that the United States is entering a severe recession, and some predict that GDP will have its largest quarterly decline since 1947. Containing the epidemic has forced the United States, the world's largest economy, to halt suddenly, forced companies to close, and in turn led to millions of layoffs. The forecast range for GDP is wide, but most economists expect that after a severe decline in the second quarter, as the epidemic eases, the economy will rebound in the second half of the year.

At the same time, nearly 10 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in the two weeks ended March 28, which is equivalent to the total number of the first six and a half months of the 2007-09 recession. The unemployment rate has jumped to 4.4% in March, the highest level since 2017, and many economists expect that this number will rise to double digits in the next few months. Of course, as the epidemic situation changes hourly, certain events will soon be replaced by others, and economic expectations will continue to adjust.

Market analyst Yohay Elam: The US non-agricultural employment population recorded -701,000 people, the worst performance in 11 years. Non-agricultural data lags behind rapid development events. The salary growth rate is misleading and should be ignored. There are many unemployment cases in the retail and leisure industries, but these are relatively low-income positions. The safe-haven currency, the dollar, has room to rise.

Deutsche Bank: Emerging market credit and currency will face further impact

With the establishment of the economic recession and the deterioration of the debt ratio, credit indicators will continue to deteriorate, which limits the room for economic V-shaped recovery; due to excessive dependence on currency expansion, emerging market policies have less room to respond, especially in terms of finance. Will put pressure on emerging market currencies

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