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International Financial Information


International Financial Information


Daylight saving time is implemented in North America, specifically, the clock is dialed one hour forward at 02:00 Eastern Time, and it will end on November 1, 2020 (02:00 Eastern Time); the trading hours of the US and Canadian financial markets will be earlier Make an hour earlier.

[Saudi plans to significantly increase crude oil output and start crude oil price war]According to foreign media reports, Saudi Arabia sharply reduced crude oil prices sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States on Saturday. The discount rate was the largest in more than 20 years to attract foreign refineries. The plant purchases Saudi crude oil. At the same time, Saudi Arabia also knows market participants privately and will increase output if necessary, even reaching a record level of 12 million barrels per day. Reduced demand due to health risks will make matters worse as Saudi Arabia increases production. A commodity hedge fund manager said the move was equivalent to declaring war in the crude oil market.

[Putin claims that he will not lead the Russian Federation Parliament after stepping down] On January 20 this year, Russian President Putin submitted a constitutional amendment bill to the Russian State Duma (the lower house of the parliament). On January 23, the Russian State Duma adopted the draft amendment to the constitution on first reading. According to the constitutional amendment, some of the constitutional powers held by the head of state will be transferred to the Russian Federation Parliament. Recently, Russian President Putin stated that he will not lead the Russian Federation's parliament after stepping down as president. (CCTV News)

[Deutsche Bank: There is no room for global central banks to respond to the crisis, policy failures will occur]Deutsche Bank said that there is no room for global central banks to respond to crises caused by the outbreak of public health events; "policy failures will occur," Deutsche Bank Global Currency Research The person in charge, George Saravelos, wrote in a report. "We don't agree with the central bank's statement that there is room for a crisis"; if "yields are close to zero, where will they find room?" Saravelos wrote. "If the price of currency cannot fall, the only thing you can do is print more money. The market correctly anticipated policy failures, as evidenced by the collapse in yields and inflation expectations around the world."

[Moody's cuts G-20 economic forecast due to public health incident, US economic growth forecast is lowered from 1.7% to 1.5%]Moody's Investors Service said it lowered the G-20 ’s benchmark growth forecast to 2.1% , 0.3 percentage points lower than before; the U.S. economic growth forecast was revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%, and the risk of the benchmark forecast "still stands still"; the agency pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding the forecast is "abnormally high" and may appear more In severe cases, weak demand will lead to a general decline in commodity prices and oil prices will remain volatile.

[Barclays expects ECB to not cut interest rates next week and will focus more on lending policy] Barclays economists Philippe Gudin, Francois Cabau and Ludovico Sapio said in an email report that the ECB is not expected to meet at the March 12 meeting Interest rate cuts will instead focus more on financing measures such as targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO); "the possibility of interest rate cuts is small and will only be used if the exchange rate has surged", according to historical data, the euro is No interest rate cut will occur until close to one euro against the US $ 1.25 in three months; they expect the European Central Bank to announce "some changes to TLTRO to make it more attractive to banks" after the March meeting. If economic data indicate a brief recession in the euro zone, the ECB may implement more quantitative easing at a later stage; it may be at its April or June meeting

[Italy's fiscal stimulus plan approved by the European Union, not counting financial compliance considerations]The European Commission stated that in assessing Italy's implementation of EU fiscal regulations, it will not include Italy's fiscal incentives for the economic impact of health risks . In a letter to the Roman government, senior economic officials of the European Commission approved the country ’s recently announced spending plan, stating that such one-off incentives would not be considered in calculating Italy ’s main deficit indicator. The European Commission's green light highlights that managing the economic impact of the epidemic has become Brussels' top priority. The additional spending will make Italy's budget deficit higher than its promised by 6.35 billion euros, or 0.35% of GDP. In a letter to the European Commission, Treasury Secretary Roberto Gualtieri said the extra spending was a one-off, and Italy's budget deficit will rise to 2.5% of GDP from a previously committed 2.2% in 2020.

[Philippines declares public health emergency, Duterte agrees to increase budget] According to the recommendations of the Philippine Ministry of Health and the chairman of the Philippine Senate Health Committee, Christopher Lawrence Bongo, Filipino President Duterte announced the country ’s entry into public health on the 7th State of emergency. On the 6th, Duterte has agreed with the Philippine Ministry of Health's proposal for a supplementary public health budget of about 2 billion pesos, which is pending approval by Congress.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

10:50

JPY

GDP(QoQ)(Q4)

10:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

17:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Feb)

18:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

TD Securities: Strong Employment Data Supports USD "Cheap" View




Mark McCormick, global head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, wrote in a research note that the company is buying the U.S. dollar, after a strong U.S. employment report supports the view that the U.S. dollar has recently fallen too far. McCormick wrote that there is not much reaction to employment data as the market is more concerned with risk sentiment; however, strong data supports the view that the dollar's retreat due to falling stock markets and the Fed's aggressive easing policy makes sense, but the magnitude seems to be too Big. When we summarized the high-frequency fair value of the entire G9, we found that the US dollar is cheap; in the next few weeks, we will become a US dollar buyer, and we should be able to provide better selling levels. In the next few weeks, the euro and the British pound look very good. fragile.

Faxing Bank: Even with strong non-agricultural employment data, US dollar decline will continue




Kit Juckes, a foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in an email that off-farm employment data is good, but concerns about the spread of public health events and their impact on economic growth mask the positive effect of the data. Juckes expects the dollar to fall to 100 against the yen, and the currency pair fell to 104.99 on Friday, its lowest level since August last year.

A weaker dollar requires the support of a slowing economic growth, not only a decline in yields, but also when the economy slows down. In February, U.S. non-agricultural employment posted its largest increase since May 2018. Juckes said that for the Federal Reserve, good non-farm employment data "is more useful than terrible data, but the Fed needs more information" to assess the impact of health events.


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