International Financial Information
[U.S. Vice President Pence will control information related to the new crown virus released by health officials] According to foreign media reports, all statements by U.S. health officials and scientists about public health events require the approval of Vice President Mike Pence's office. Public appearances of relevant government officials also need to be approved by Pence's office. The director of the National Institutes of Health's Infectious Diseases Department said the White House had instructed him not to publish unauthorized speeches.
[Bank of America says global economy is in its weakest year since the financial crisis] Analysts at Bank of America say that the world economy is in its weakest year since the financial crisis because coronavirus has damaged demand in China and other countries . Global growth will decline to 2.8% this year, lower than the previous forecast of 3.1%, which will be the lowest level since 2009. Although economists' forecasts are higher than 2%, which means that the global economy is in recession, the new forecast warns that global growth is in a U-shaped trajectory, instead of the V-shaped reversal that investors had expected, and risks are still leaning downward.
[U.S. stock market panic indicator breaks through levels near last bear market] As the S & P 500 index fell 3.5% intraday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index VIX, which measures the Wall Street panic indicator, hit a high of 36.36 on Thursday, surpassing 2018 It reached 36.2 on December 26, 2014, and the stock market fell nearly twice that year, and the S & P 500 was on the verge of a bear market. The US benchmark stock index has fallen by about 10% from its all-time high reached on February 19 due to concerns about the destructive nature of the public health event. In the past year, the S & P 500 has fallen by 75 points in only five trading days, two of them this week.
[Canada Toronto Stock Exchange suspends trading due to technical issues] CNBC reports that the Toronto Stock Exchange has suspended trading due to technical problems due to excessive trading volume. The reason for the excessive trading volume is that investors' concerns about the new crown pneumonia epidemic have caused global market trading volumes to exceed average levels. The Toronto Stock Exchange stated on its official Twitter that traders are currently unable to enter, modify or cancel open orders on the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange and TSX Alpha Exchange; they will continue to investigate technical issues and reopen Before, enough time will be provided for traders to process orders.
[OPEC meeting is held as scheduled Member States reaffirm their commitment to reach an agreement] OPEC Secretary-General Barkin has stated that OPEC and its member states have reaffirmed their commitment to reach an agreement in order to reach an agreement to stabilize the oil market next week. At present, communication channels of various levels among all OPEC + member states have been opened. OPEC + will take joint action to build consensus to alleviate the current sharp fluctuations in the oil market. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo is currently visiting Saudi Arabia to coordinate the holding of the OPEC conference in Vienna from March 5th to 6th as scheduled. OPEC is currently communicating with the Austrian authorities and has distributed health guidelines to staff and visiting delegations.
[Turkish-Russian representative concludes meeting without reaching substantive results on Idlib issue] On the afternoon of the 27th local time, the Turkish-Russian representative meeting entered the second day, and the two parties continued consultations on the Syrian Idlib issue. The meeting has now ended. No substantive results have been reached. The meeting was held at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and lasted three and a half hours. After the meeting, a spokesman for the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Turkish representatives called for an immediate ceasefire in Idlib during the meeting, stressed the importance of full compliance with the Sochi Agreement and called for attention to refugee issues in the region.
Summary of Institutional Perspectives
TD Securities: AUD / NZD should be bought on dips
TD Securities expects that the AUD / NZD pair will rise in 2020, rising to 1.06 in June, with a target of around 1.08 by the end of the year.
The RBA has a high threshold for rate cuts. In addition, the Australian dollar remains a barometer of global economic conditions. As market uncertainties have already involved the global supply chain, the Australian dollar and the euro have fallen sharply. This market has exceeded the level reflected by short-term drivers and short positions are exhausted. Although the AUD / NZD may still fall, it still tends to buy AUD / NZD on dips.
Cyclical and structural factors weighed on the New Zealand dollar. The New Zealand dollar is affected by global and local factors and is therefore vulnerable to extremely uncertain regional growth prospects. Supply-side reform is a negative structural force, especially when the balance of payments is still facing challenges. The NZD is sensitive to these liquidities and will limit the NZD's upside in the coming months, while the slowdown in the volatility value model indicates that the AUD / NZD will rise in 2020.
UOB: NZD falls below 0.6270 to accelerate decline
UOB expects that if the New Zealand dollar falls below 0.6270 against the US dollar in the short term, it will fall further to 0.6240. Last week we first mentioned that 0.6270 seemed to be close at hand. Although severely oversold, a break below 0.6270 indicates that the New Zealand dollar will fall further to 0.6240, which may retest the low of 0.620 last year. On the whole, only a break of 0.6330 indicates that the current decline has stabilized.