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International Financial Information

International Financial Information

[Fed Governor Brainerd: Lessons learned from the crisis show that interest rates should be kept low until employment, inflation goals are achieved]

[Fed Brad: The Fed is in a good position and does not need to cut interest rates]

[US business activity index shrinks in February for the first time since 2013] Preliminary data released on Friday showed that IHS Markit ’s purchasing managers index, which measures the combined output of factories and service providers, fell 3.7 points to 49.6, creating October 2013 The lowest level since the US government shut down. Readings below 50 indicate atrophy. The warning sign indicates that the outbreak has begun to weaken the world's largest economy.

[Fed Bostic: No interest rate cut is expected in 2020, and the epidemic will have little impact on the economy] The economy is currently at a very strong level. It is expected that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2-2.25% in 2020, and the labor market will remain strong. , Inflation will also be close to the target. Financial markets have different views on the Fed's interest rate adjustments, but there is nothing to worry about. The recent rapid development of the epidemic has increased the uncertainty of the economic outlook, but the US economy has not been affected much at present. No structural changes are expected in the way the outbreak is handled.

[Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz: Media reports that Saudi Arabia is considering leaving OPEC are "ridiculous and nonsense", and Saudi Arabia maintains communication and dialogue with all OPEC and OPEC + partners]

[Baker Hughes: U.S. oil drilling record increases for three consecutive weeks] US oil service company Baker Hughes released data on Friday showing that as of the week of February 21, U.S. oil active drilling increased by 1 679 seats, recording growth for three consecutive weeks.

[Lian En, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank: The ECB Management Committee is paying close attention to the risk that negative interest rates may affect banks' profitability and weaken the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. Reversing interest rates is currently not binding on the euro area]
 

[Michel, European Council President: Unable to reach agreement on EU budget] French President Macron said that he was very sorry that the budget agreement was not reached at the summit. Agricultural subsidies have increased, but not enough; the failure of the EU budget summit shows that " We have no unity without Britain. "


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JPY


Japan - Emperor's Birthday

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Brazil - Carnival

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EUR


German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives


Societe Generale: If the US index rises to 100 points, it will attract huge buying




Societe Generale Bank analyst Kit Juckes said that the situation in the currency market can be described by madness. Investors who were not optimistic about the dollar have started to change their views, and the dollar bulls are controlling the market. At first people thought that the dollar would depreciate because of various tax cuts by the US President Trump and the dovish policy of the Federal Reserve. However, the performance of the dollar this year has almost exceeded everyone's expectations. Kit Juckes also predicts that if the US dollar index successfully soared to 100 points this week, it will not only reach a new high of nearly three years, but also attract unprecedented huge buying.

ABN AMRO: UK PMI data improves but supply chain is still affected by epidemic, cautious about whether economy grows sharply




Although the UK ’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in February and the service PMI continued to point to healthier economic growth, although slightly below the January data, the service PMI remained at a considerable level of 53.3, but reported supplier deliveries The sub-item index fell by 9%, which is the largest monthly decline in the history of the survey, indicating that the supply chain is affected by the epidemic and the delivery time of enterprises is being extended. The industry may face challenges in the coming months. How long this re-emerging optimism can last, or how much it translates into official activity data for the next few months, remains a question. In addition, the ongoing uncertainty of the UK-Europe trade negotiations is expected to continue to curb investment, so it is cautious about whether the UK economy will grow significantly in the next few months, but despite this, the Bank of England is still expected to be suitable to temporarily maintain interest rates unchanged.


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