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International Financial Information

International Financial Information

[Summary of Highlights of the January Meeting of the Federal Reserve] Policy Interest Rate: The current policy stance is appropriate for a period of time; Epidemic Impact: The epidemic situation is a factor of uncertainty in the outlook; Treasury bill purchases: It is expected that purchases will decrease in the second quarter; Repurchase plan: Short-term repurchase operations are expected to end after April; Economic conditions: Employment is growing at a healthy rate and consumer spending is solid.

[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.16 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels last week] U.S. API gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels and refined oil inventories increased by 32,000 barrels as of February 14; US crude oil imports increased by 105,000 Barrels / day.

[Fed Cashash: Satisfied with the current US interest rate level, the Fed will maintain interest rate levels for a period of time; my guess is that the Fed will maintain interest rate levels in the next 3-6 months, and the next action will be a rate cut; the United States Unlikely to be immune to Asian economic slowdown]

[German Finance Minister Scholz: Despite the risk of a public health event, there is no evidence that the German economy is in recession, and we insist on a forecast of 1.1% growth in the German economy in 2020]

[Fed Bostic: The Fed's interest rate path is in a "very good position"]
[EU Trade Commissioner warns companies to prepare for major changes in their relationship with the UK] EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan warns that there will be "major" changes in EU-UK relations after the end of the Brexit transition period, regardless of whether Whether the two sides can reach a trade agreement by the end of the year

[The U.S. January PPI monthly rate hits the largest gain since March 2019, and the U.S. January PPI annual rate hits its largest increase since April 2019]

[After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, traders still maintain a bet of 25 basis points in 2020.] After the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the January meeting, futures traders maintained their expectations of at least one rate cut this year. This view is inconsistent with the prevailing view that the Fed's current monetary policy setting may be “keep appropriate for some time”. January 2021 federal funds futures show that the interest rate at the end of this year is 1.19%, which is comparable to the level before the release of the meeting minutes. Assuming an effective federal funds rate of 1.59%, the market has digested a rate cut of about 40 basis points. This is equivalent to a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and the probability of falling again is more than 50%.



News and Data



Building Permits (Jan)



PPI (MoM) (Jan)



Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)



FOMC Meeting Minutes 



Employment Change (Jan)



PBoC Loan Prime Rate



Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)



ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 

Summary of Institutional Perspectives

Bank of Montreal, Canada: Fed meeting minutes review 

Overall, the minutes of the Fed meeting show that as long as the Fed can achieve its expectations of a moderate economic growth and a moderate increase in core inflation, there is little reason for FOMC members not to be patient with interest rates.

UOB ties AUD / USD 0.6650 as key point in short term

After studying the technical analysis of the Australian dollar against the UOB, UOB adopted short-term flat forecasts. Analysts at the bank pointed out that the Australian dollar fell to 0.6674 on Tuesday after flat trading and closing at 0.6714. Despite the weakening of the underlying tone, we maintain the same sentiment from last Thursday-the Australian dollar is expected to be sideways in the 0.6650 / 0.6780 range. That said, after the price action on Tuesday, the bottom of the price range is expected to be more fragile, but the Australian dollar must lock New York's closing price below 0.6650, otherwise there will not be enough momentum to sustain the decline. In other words, the current sideways trading may be terminated by a new wave of declines in the Australian dollar.

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