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International financial news   


[The US Treasury Department cancels the identification of China as an "exchange rate manipulator"] 
The US Treasury Department announced on the 13th the semi-annual exchange rate policy report, canceling the identification of China as an "exchange rate manipulator". 

[UK ’s GDP shrinks unexpectedly in November Central bank officials debate the need to cut interest rates] 
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that November ’s GDP fell by 0.3% month-on-month. Economists had expected it to be flat. This means that the economy needs to grow by 0.1% -0.2% in December to prevent a contraction in the fourth quarter. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted before the election, raising questions about whether the economy achieved any growth in the fourth quarter of last year. These numbers will also make Bank of England officials more worried, as they are debating whether further stimulus measures are needed if the economic weakness continues.

[CFTC Chairman: The United States will propose restrictions on oil speculation this month] 
Heath Tarbert, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said that the CFTC will re-propose a controversial requirement later this month, namely, the position restriction requirement In curbing traders' ability to speculate on oil and other commodities. He said the CFTC plans to finalize the rule later in 2020. The re-proposed version will mark the CFTC's attempt to implement the position restriction requirements required by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.


[Lagarde urges ECB officials to remain silent on strategic assessment] 

European Central Bank President Lagarde has written to central bank policymakers asking them to formally announce the agency's upcoming strategic assessment and its parameters on January 23 Do n’t discuss publicly. In recent weeks, opinions on what the European Central Bank has to assess should have surged. Topics include the mystery of keeping inflation low, possible changes to price stability targets, and issues that some people see as potential distractions, such as climate change and digital currencies.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

10:50

JPY

Current Account n.s.a. (Nov)

Bank Lending (YoY) (Dec)

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Nov)

16:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Dec) 

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Dec)

18:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) CNY (Dec)

Imports (YoY) CNY (Dec)

Trade Balance USD (Dec)

Exports (YoY) (Dec)

Imports (YoY) (Dec)

Trade Balance CNY (Dec)

19:30

EUR

ECB's Mersch speech

N/A

EUR

12-Month Letras Auction

6-Month Letras Auction 

22:00

USD

NFIB Business Optimism Index (Dec)



Summary of investment bank views

Credit Agricole Bank of England: Bank of England dovish tone may continue to weigh on GBP




Valentin Marinov, head of monetary strategy at G-10, said that even if the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged this month, its dovish tone may continue to weigh on the pound. The pound may remain weak, especially when the January decision to hold on is considered to be a temporary delay in the inevitable rate cut. The change in the attitude of central bank officials may indicate that after the election, we and the market expected Boris' rebound may be lower than expected.


Deutsche Bank: New USD / JPY long order with entry point of 109.85 and target 112.00



Deutsche Bank (Deutshe Bank) position report on Monday (January 13) showed that the bank opened a new long position in USD / JPY with an entry point of 109.85, a target of 112.00 and a stop loss at 108.00; analysts at the bank said that we see At the window of long USD / JPY based on inflation, it is expected that US dollar assets will usher in a good start in the election year, so it is recommended to be long USD / JPY in the first quarter; another factor that may trigger the rise may come from Japan Pension funds if they can allocate more assets overseas.


Mitsubishi UF: New GBP / USD bearish limit order, entry point 1.3080, target 1.2800




The Mitsubishi UFJ Bank Tokyo (MUFG) position report on Monday (January 13) showed that the new GBP / USD position was opened with an entry point of 1.3080, a target of 1.2800, and a stop loss set at 1.3200. Analysts at the bank said that we see the downside risks of the pound being accumulated, mainly from the macro level of the United Kingdom, and the market has begun to digest a possible easing outlook for the Bank of England. There is also uncertainty about the political situation in the EU-UK negotiations. Market participants have begun to lose confidence in the UK's domestic economic growth, believing that the weak performance may force the Bank of England to relax again, although it is unlikely to be implemented in January, but may take action before May.


Deutsche Bank: New USD / JPY long order with entry point of 109.85 and target 112.00


Deutsche Bank (Deutshe Bank) position report on Monday (January 13) showed that the bank opened a new long position in USD / JPY with an entry point of 109.85, a target of 112.00 and a stop loss at 108.00; analysts at the bank said that we see At the window of long USD / JPY based on inflation, it is expected that US dollar assets will usher in a good start in the election year, so it is recommended to be long USD / JPY in the first quarter; another factor that may trigger the rise may come from Japan Pension funds if they can allocate more assets overseas.


Susan Bates and other Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an e-mailed statement that the latest U.S. sanctions on Iran will have limited impact on the global metal market because Iran's share is only about 1% in most financial markets. "Although existing sanctions have had some impact on Iran's metals and mining industry, a new round of sanctions has increased output risks. Morgan Stanley said that Iran produces only slightly more than 300,000 tons of cathode copper per year, accounting for the world 1.4% of refined copper output, of which 40% is for export. Iran produced 36 million tons of iron ore in 2018, of which 47% was for export, accounting for 1% of global marine supply. By 2019, exports have fallen to 33% of output


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