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International financial news

International financial news


[Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan (FOMC 2020): Considering interest rate adjustments, but will focus on growth, inflation, and financial stability] 
The approximate position of the federal funds rate is 1.50% -1.75%. Personally, "substantial change" means a change in the outlook for US economic growth over its growth potential. When weighing whether the Fed should adjust its interest rate policy, I will focus on economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. I can tolerate US inflation rising above 2%, but I also consider financial stability factors. Hope to actively explore options in order to curb the Fed's speed of table expansion. In assessing the Fed's policy framework, I am open to setting longer-term average inflation targets, but I also do not want this to be a "commitment."

[The European Central Bank Management Committee and the French Central Bank Governor Villerois: Applying negative interest rate policies to individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises is impossible and undesirable] 

Monetary policy is not the only reason for low interest rates. Inflation goals will be the focus of future review of the European Central Bank's policy framework. Inflation goals need to be balanced and flexible. Economic stability is consistent with interest rate stability. For eurozone households, negative interest rates are not a problem. Monetary policy cannot ignore financial stability.


[Bolotzi, Governor of the Bank of Canada: The impact of the improvement in the global trade situation remains to be seen] 
The global trade situation has improved, but its impact is not yet clear. The Bank of Canada is paying attention to the spillover effects of trade on other areas. The trend in the Canadian labor market has been healthy over the past year, and the central bank is concerned about whether the recent labor market slowdown will continue. The central bank is also watching for a renewed bubble in the housing market.


[Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkali (FOMC 2020): At present, I don't think the United States will fall into recession in the next 1-2 years.] 
Tensions about tariffs have caused low US business investment. Improved trade tensions could lead to optimism. Given that the FOMC has suspended interest rate policy actions, the Fed is now in a better position to boost inflation.


[Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Evans (with FOMC voting right in 2021): The Fed is not expected to adjust policy rates in 2020] 
It is expected that the growth of US employment will slow down over time, and US inflation will reach 1.9 in 2020 %, Close to the Fed's 2% inflation target.


[Johnson ’s Brexit agreement passed by the British House of Commons] 

The British House of Commons passed the Withdrawal Agreement Act by 330 votes to 231, which has now been submitted to the House of Lords. Johnson hopes to complete the legislative process before the end of this month for the United Kingdom Leaving the European Union on January 31, fulfilling her campaign promise to "finish Brexit." The smooth passage of the bill in the House of Commons illustrates the dramatic change in the political landscape compared to when Theresa May first tried to get parliament to pass the Brexit agreement, and Britain's departure from the European Union this month has essentially become In one form, outside attention has shifted to negotiations between Britain and the European Union over future relations; Johnson wants to reach a trade agreement similar to that of Canada by the end of 2020, and the European Commission has said it is impossible.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

16:00

JPY

Coincident Index (Nov) PREL 

16:00

 JPY

Leading Economic Index (Nov) PREL 

17:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) (Dec)

N/A

CNY

New Loans (Dec)

N/A

CNY

M2 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec)

18:45

EUR

Industrial Output (MoM) (Nov)

19:00

EUR

Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) (Nov)

N/A

CNY

FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Dec)

20:00

EUR

Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Nov)

20:00

EUR

Industrial Output w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov)



Summary of investment bank views

United Overseas Bank of Singapore: USD / JPY faces strong resistance at 109.75



The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen rose sharply to 109.24 after falling to 107.63 on Wednesday. This rapid and large rise may be ahead of the time. It seems unlikely that the currency pair will rise further, which means that the current upward move can alleviate Under the circumstances, the exchange rate has the opportunity to test 109.35 first. It is expected that the USD / JPY will not break through 109.75 and the support level is at 108.80. If it falls below 108.55, it implies that a short-term top will be formed.


TD Bank: Increase USD / Canadian long position stop loss to 1.3000, target maintained at 1.3150




The Toronto TD Bank (TD) position report on Thursday (January 9) showed that the bank adjusted the existing USD / CAD long position, the entry point was 1.2969, the target was maintained at 1.3150, and the stop loss was raised from 1.2850 to 1.3000. Long USD / Canadian dollar is our recommendation in the foreign exchange market this week. I believe the support effect of 1.2950 is solid and the recent strength of the Canadian dollar should fade.


ANZ: Expected fire to have limited impact on AUD, RBA rate cut expected in February




The impact of reinsurance fund flows related to the Australian forest fire on the Australian dollar is expected to be limited. Earlier assessments showed that tangible capital as part of GDP's means of production, even if it suffered losses, would not be sufficient to affect the reinsurance capital flow of the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in February, which is not affected by the recent forest fire incident.


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