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International financial news

International financial news

[More than 90 killed in Somalia bombing, no organization claimed responsibility]

The explosion reportedly occurred at a busy security checkpoint in Mogadishu. Abdilizhak said on social media that more than 90 people have been killed, including 17 Somali police, 73 college students and 4 foreigners. Local media reports have quoted Somali security services officials as saying that the main target of the attack may be four engineers from Turkey. They have been killed in the attack.


[Euro is expected to become the world's major currency in 2020, due to the ebb of trade risks]

① At the end of 2019, the euro, which has been in a downturn for two years, finally ushered in a much-needed optimism;

②According to the median analyst's forecast based on the Bloomberg survey, the euro is expected to rise more than 4% against the US dollar in 2020, making it the world's best performing currency. The improvement in the global economic outlook and the easing of political tensions are expected to be positive;

③ One of Morgan Stanley's top deals in 2020 is to go long in Euros. Analysts at institutions such as UBS Wealth Management and Credit Agricole also hold the same view. The options market shows that people's confidence in the Euro has strengthened. In addition, with the signs of improving US-China trade relations, risk appetite has generally risen, and the euro hit a weekly high on Friday;

④ The euro rose to 1.1150 US dollars on Friday, the highest since December 18. The survey shows that the euro is expected to reach $ 1.16 by the end of 2020.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

17:00

  RUB

Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

18:00

  EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

19:00

  CHF

KOF Leading Indicators (Dec)

19:00

  EUR

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

19:00

  EUR

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

19:00

  EUR

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec) 

20:30

  GBP

Gross Mortgage Approvals

21:45

  EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

22:25

  BRL

BCB Focus Market Readout

17:00

  RUB

Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)



Summary of investment bank views

Dansk Bank: EUR / USD expected to slowly move towards 1.15




Danske Bank chief analyst Jens Peter Sorensen predicts that by the end of 2020, the euro / dollar will “slowly” move towards the 1.15 level. While the European Central Bank maintains a loose policy stance, individuals are cautious about being overly optimistic; we have a good view of the euro In the first quarter, the euro is expected to fluctuate within the range of the US dollar. Although the situation has taken the first steps towards reaching a trade agreement and an orderly Brexit, and the global economy shows signs of stabilization, this fragile recovery still requires a lot of Stimulus, especially in Europe.


Nordic Bank: Difficulties in UK-Europe trade talks, Sterling faces downside risks




Conservatives and Boris Johnson's victory in the British election should pave the way for Parliament to ratify the Brexit deal in January. The market does not appear to have fully valued the possible difficulties in the second phase of negotiations between the UK and the EU on future trade relations (although this week the pound is somewhat weak). Therefore, downside risks to the pound are expected in the next few quarters, partly due to the second stage of negotiations, and partly due to the continued weakness of the UK economy, especially the labor market. This outlook forecast also seems to be more in line with the situation in the options market, which has clearly adjusted for the weaker pound in 2020. The euro is expected to rise to 0.88 against the pound in the next three months.


Rabobank: U.S. dollar against Canadian dollar is forecast to show upward trend, AUD / USD will face new downward pressure in 2020




We often stress that the gap between crude oil and interest rates is the main driver of the USD / CAD. But the decline in US interest rates and the continued strengthening of the US dollar will break this general situation. Our bank predicts that the USD / CAD will show an upward trend, but we are also pleasantly surprised by the flexibility of the Canadian dollar. However, it is only a matter of time before data deteriorates and market volatility.


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