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International financial news

International financial news

[API report: US crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels to 452 million barrels last week]
In the United States, API gasoline inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 302,000 barrels. The increase in crude oil inventories this week was the largest since the week of November 15. US crude oil imports fell by 203,000 barrels per day to 6.7 million barrels per day last week.

[Dallas Fed Chairman Kaplan said that unless the U.S. economic outlook changes significantly, the Fed should keep interest rates unchanged next year]

[Federal Reserve Rosengren supports policy unchanged, because the US economy is solid]
Rosengren said the US economy is "in a good position" in the coming year, and policymakers should not adjust interest rates until they see a "major" change in outlook. Keeping an eye on asset prices to avoid a recession is indeed a concern for financial stability.

[U.S. will step up enforcement of Iranian shipping and metal sanctions]



News and Data



Building Permits (Nov)



JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)



BoE Gov Carney Speaks 



ECB President Lagarde Speaks 



German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)



CPI (YoY) (Nov)



CPI (YoY) (Nov)

Summary of investment bank views

Faxing Bank: Sterling traders "surprised" by threat of hard Brexit

Traders believe that the Conservative's overwhelming victory on December 12 will lead Britain to a smooth Brexit. It is reported that the government will try to pass legislation to prevent the delay in Brexit, which will bring the euro to the pound level to 0.8500, the highest level since the election results were announced. Analyst Kit Juckes believes that there is not much to add to the view that the EUR / GBP average level of 0.85 in 2020 remains at 0.85, but of course, the tail risks of a catastrophic Brexit and the rise of the euro against the pound to 0.95 have increased.

TD Securities: 1.3011 will be the next target for short sterling

As the risk of a no-deal Brexit return to the table at the end of 2020, the sterling pair is expected to return to an "untradeable" state. As the long-term risk-return rate deteriorates again, investors may give up hope that funds will flow into the UK market again. Until then, the 1.3100-1.3110 area will provide support for the low 1.3011 before the election day. In addition, 1.3011 will be the next target for short sterling.\

Bank of Montreal, Canada: Euro to fall on new stimulus measures by European Central Bank

Bank of Montreal predicts that the euro may fall to 1.08 from the current 1.1163 in the next six months due to new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank. Stephen Gallo, the bank ’s foreign exchange strategist, said that the bank ’s internal view is that although risks tend to be more accommodative, the ECB ’s monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged in the first half of 2020. If the easing of the European Central Bank does not put too much pressure on the euro, the political dynamics of the EU-27 and trade-related factors will put pressure on the euro. In the next three months, the euro against the US dollar will still fluctuate within the range of 1.10-1.12.

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