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International financial news

International financial news
[Powell: Monetary policy stance may still be appropriate, economic outlook is positive]
The Federal Reserve announced its December interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday morning in Beijing time, keeping the interest rate range at 1.50% -1.75% unchanged, which is in line with market expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference following the interest rate resolution that the current monetary policy stance may still be appropriate. The US economic outlook faces many risks but remains positive.

[Key combing of the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement]
Interest rate levels: interest rates are at a level that can support the economy and employment; the excess reserve ratio and discount interest rate remain unchanged; forward-looking guidelines: delete the wording around "uncertainty" in the outlook; the bitmap shows that by the end of 2020; Inflation employment: overall and core inflation levels are still below 2%, employment growth is stable, and the labor market remains strong; economic expectations: GDP expectations remain unchanged, reducing the unemployment rate for the next three years and the federal funds rate expectations.
[EIA report: Excluding strategic crude oil stocks increased by 822,000 barrels to 447.9 million barrels]
The US ’s EIA gasoline inventories increased by 5.405 million barrels and refined oil inventories increased by 4.118 million barrels as of the week of December 6. Last week ’s US domestic crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels to 12.8 million barrels per day.

[US core inflation slows in November, providing reasons for the Fed to stay still]

A key U.S. consumer price indicator remained sluggish in November, supporting widespread expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. The data released by the Labour Department on Wednesday showed that the core consumer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month for the second consecutive month and rose 2.3% year-on-year. These figures are basically in line with market expectations. The overall CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.



News and Data



Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)



Crude Oil Inventories



FOMC Economic Projections 



Fed Interest Rate Decision



FOMC Press Conference 



SNB Interest Rate Decision



Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)



ECB Marginal Lending Facility

Summary of investment bank views

Bank of New York Mellon: Bonds, foreign exchange markets understand Fed's loose message

John Velis, a strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said that after the Federal Open Market Committee announced interest rate decisions, U.S. Treasury yields fell with the US dollar, and it looks like the market has grasped the Fed's pigeons from a bitmap rather than an ambiguous policy statement Send information. With the Fed removing concerns about downside risks, the policy statement itself can be considered hawkish, but the bitmap is clearly dovish. Expectations for long-term federal funds rates remain at 2.5%, and bitmaps through 2020 still show interest rates below that level. This means that the consensus reflected by the bitmap is that accommodative policies will be maintained for some time.

European Central Bank is expected to maintain stability in December, Lagarde's first show or stressed the impact of fiscal policy

Bilbao Biscay expects that the European Central Bank ’s December interest rate resolution is unlikely to adopt further easing policies, and the chance of a rate cut is extremely low. It is not expected to make greater adjustments to economic expectations, but it is expected that core inflation will gradually rise; this The resolution is the first time that Lagarde has chaired the monetary policy meeting since he assumed the presidency of the European Central Bank. It is expected to continue the tone of the October resolution. It calls for maintaining patience and transmitting easing to economic entities and inflation prospects. She is also expected to emphasize the government ’s fiscal policy. Impact, as previously stated that if the ECB's easing policy is supported by fiscal policy, it will achieve more of its goals and have fewer negative effects.

TD Securities: If Conservatives Underperform, Sterling Still Has Downside

The sterling gave up some of its recent gains overnight after a key poll showed a narrowing of the British Conservative's lead. If there is a suspended parliament in Britain, the chaos in Britain's internal affairs will continue. If the market's main expectations fail, there is still room for further downside in the pound. If the Conservative Party fails to win with a significant lead, the recent rise in the pound is likely to face a major adjustment, or it will test the 1.2985-1.3015 range downward.

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