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International financial news

International financial news

[Fed Beige Book: Moderation and Expansion of Economic Activities]
The Federal Reserve ’s Beige Book of Economic Status reveals that from October to mid-November, most regions reported steady to moderate growth in consumer spending, and that automotive sales and tourism in several regions were in manufacturing. This is an increase from the previous reporting period, but most regions are still not growing. Overall, although the nation's labor market is still tight, overall employment continues to grow slightly. During the reporting period, prices moderated and increased, and reports of manufacturing expansion costs and sales prices were mixed.

[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil stocks that had been removed from strategic reserves for the week ended November 22 increased by 1.572 million barrels to 452 million barrels]
Gasoline inventory increased by 5.132 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 725,000 barrels. US domestic crude oil production increased last week US crude oil exports last week increased by 453,000 barrels per day to 3.48 million barrels per day, recording growth for 3 consecutive weeks.
[United States Dallas Fed Chairman Kaplan (with voting rights in 2020): The Fed's current interest rate level is reasonable]
Weak global economic growth, weak manufacturing and weak business investment remain. Monetary policy must look forward, and I do not want to commit to future actions. Now is not the time to let the bitmap "retired," but for the Fed, checking communication practices is healthy.

[Energy service company Baker Hughes said that as of the week of November 27, the number of active rigs in the United States fell by three and the total fell to 668, the lowest level since April 2017]


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

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  USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)

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  USD

GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 

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Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

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Crude Oil Inventories



Summary of investment bank views

Citibank: these factors will drive the dollar performance by the end of the year




Citibank discussed the outlook for the U.S. dollar to the end of the year, pointing out that the Fed's liquidity injection to meet the demand for the U.S. dollar or drive the performance of the U.S. dollar; The demand for USD liquidity is solid, and the repurchase operation in the next period may end at the end of the year. If this operation is similar to over-subscription, Citi expects the Federal Reserve to announce a larger additional operation on December 12. If this is not the case, it will make the US dollar jump further; it needs to be reminded that the US market is welcoming Thanksgiving holiday Expected US dollar volatility is limited.

ING: Concerns over Brexit will limit sterling gains in 2020




The Conservative majority should benefit the pound, as it will increase the chances that British Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit plan will be approved by Parliament. Therefore, if the Conservatives can win the majority in the December 12 election, the pound is expected to rise briefly. This does not mean, however, that "the UK is moving forward at full speed," as the hard work of negotiating trade agreements with international partners, including the EU, begins once the UK leaves the EU. This part of the uncertainty is expected to limit the rise of the pound after Brexit. It is unlikely that the EUR / GBP EUR / GBP will fall significantly below the 0.82-0.83 area in 2020.


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