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International financial news

International financial news

[European Central Bank President Draghi’s curtain show, said that President-elect Lagarde has joined the management committee and made a list of six major points of speech]
 
Provide monetary policy stimulus measures; interest rate forward guidance: Europe will be ready to adjust all policy instruments if necessary; economy: strong employment growth, increasing wages will continue to support the economy, and the published data suggest that the second-quarter growth is moderate but Positive, the service industry and the construction industry continue to show growth; progress: overall growth may fluctuate slightly before the end of the year, the pressure of weak economic growth will gradually improve, and the potential gradual evolution will rise; risk factors: the economic outlook is still facing downside risks are prominent, and the gradual and moderate economic outlook will still face downside risks. Risks are related to geopolitics, protectionism and emerging market vulnerability. Fiscal policy: We must vigorously strengthen the implementation of reforms, moderately expand fiscal positions, and spend more on growth. Public finances, governments with fiscal space should act.
 
 
[U.S. durable goods order data is not good]
 
US September durable goods orders initial rate of -1.1%, while expected -0.7%, further decline, last month's data growth of 0.3%; data show that the US manufacturing industry is further affected by global trade friction, since last week Since the US economic deterioration is shifting from manufacturing to various fields, the US retail data was poor last week, indicating that US consumption is being affected. Real estate data also shows signs of slowing down. Also, the US debt problem is becoming more and more serious. Worried about the risk of the US falling into recession; although the US bond yields have been avoided, mainly benefiting from the improvement of the trade situation, there are still many uncertainties.
 
[British Prime Minister Johnson wins the parliament's vote on his legislative agenda]
 
British Prime Minister Johnson: If the Brexit agreement cannot be passed in advance, I will pass the Brexit agreement after winning a majority in the parliament. If I agree to hold the general election, the parliament can work on the Brexit Agreement before November 6. If the parliament votes to support The general election will be held on December 12, then the parliament can be dissolved on November 6. The EU may allow the Brexit to be postponed until November 15 or November 30. Individuals prefer these two options.
 
[Japan and South Korea are hard to break because of the deadlock in labor issues, Abe said that they can’t let go]
 

According to Japan’s Kyodo News, because of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s meeting with South Korean Prime Minister Lee Loon-Hyeon on the 24th, the Japanese government plans to continue to ask the South Korean side to come up with a solution to the most important labor lawsuit between the two countries. Abe’s deteriorating relationship between Japan and South Korea pointed out: “You can’t leave it alone.” The report said that Abe’s and South Korean President Wen Zai’s can achieve separate talks and become the focus of the moment. During the talks with Li Luo yuan, Abe also showed the importance of attaching importance to the dialogue between the diplomatic authorities, but it is difficult to predict when the opposition will be resolved. According to reports, the Japanese government’s position is that as long as South Korea does not take the initiative to open the situation on the labor issue, it will not have the environment for holding summits. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yi Yiwei said that the improvement of Japan-ROK relations will "require the South to take a sensible response."


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

00:45

  USD

Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 

00:45

  USD

Markit Composite PMI (Oct) 

01:00

  USD

New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

01:00

  USD

New Home Sales (Sep)

10:00

  USD

FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

19:00

  EUR

German Business Expectations (Oct)

19:00

  EUR

German Current Assessment (Oct)

19:00

  EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)



Summary of investment bank views

Forexlive, the financial website: The EU may have to wait until next Monday to announce the decision to extend the Brexit
 
1. On the one hand, British Labor Party leader Corbin said in an interview that he hopes to wait for the EU decision on deferred extension before deciding when to support the election;

2. On the other hand, the BBC editorial EU diplomat said that he is considering plans for the early election of British Prime Minister Johnson on December 12. The EU may postpone the decision to postpone until next Monday (previously expected to be announced on Friday).



Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates next week but adjust the wording to indicate the end of the interest rate cut cycle;




1.  Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week, but will make two adjustments to hint at the end of the current easing cycle; Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Fed may adjust some wording in the statement, suggesting a third relaxation this year The policy will complete the “mid-term adjustment” mentioned by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in July;

2.  This statement has angered some people on Wall Street, but Powell still insists to a large extent that although the Fed has taken steps to relax the financial environment, the economic situation is still stable in other respects.


Internationale Nederlanden Bank


The pressure on the Bank of Japan to introduce more easing policies at next week's meeting is increasing, and policy decisions will depend on the central bank's view of economic risks in the context of a deteriorating global situation.

Bank of the Netherlands: Next week, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again, focusing on policy trends in December;



1. The Dutch bank said that the European Central Bank stabilized as scheduled in October, and the focus turned to the Fed’s October interest rate decision next week, which is expected to cut interest rates again by 25 basis points. Although the market price has fluctuated sharply in recent weeks, the OIS forward rate shows a 25 basis point rate cut. At 90%, the current Fed is unlikely to surprise the market, so the October cuts are expected to be a pin-up;
2. As the comments of Fed officials sound more and more reluctant to relax and even have more dovish members, this is likely to mean that the interest rate cut in December will be postponed until January 2020, when consumption slows down in the data. more obvious.


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