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International financial news

International financial news

[British Prime Minister Johnson: There is enough time to complete the Brexit agreement] British Prime Minister Johnson said that if the parliament agrees to postpone the Brexit, the government will withdraw the Brexit bill and hold a general election, have enough time to complete the Brexit agreement, postpone the Brexit Will create more uncertainty for the company, even if there is no agreement to leave the EU, the UK will not collapse at the end of 2020, because the trade agreement will reach a British Prime Minister Johnson: voting veto timetable will make the EU take control, must refuse two A referendum will lead to a great new trade agreement.

[Reporter: OPEC considers deepening production cuts in December] Four OPEC sources said that OPEC and its allies are considering further reductions in crude oil supply at the December meeting due to fears of weak demand growth in 2020; as the actual leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia I hope to work first to improve the implementation rate of OPEC and other non-members, and then promise to further reduce production; Iraq and Nigeria are OPECs that fail to fully comply with the commitments; however, sources said that although December will consider deepening production cuts, But now it’s still in its early stages, and it’s going to be clearer in November; another source said that deepening production cuts is an option, but first you should do something else; for example, if Iraq and Nigeria don’t have 100% compliance, Other countries will not be willing to increase production.

[The Fed’s regular repurchase operation for the first time in a month on Tuesday was oversubscribed] The Fed’s regular repurchase operation on Tuesday was the first full subscription in nearly a month, as the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week; the New York Federal Reserve said on its website. In the 14-day repurchase operation, $35 billion in securities was accepted, which is the largest size set, lower than the $52.2 billion in bids received; the Fed’s minimum bid rate for the repo operation was from the last October 17 1.84% of the day's regular repurchase operations were downgraded to 1.75%; Wrightson ICAP's strategist said in the report that because the New York Fed's minimum interest rate is based on the level recorded in the regular market, the lower interest rate on Tuesday reflects the market It is expected that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30 is high.

API report: US crude oil inventories increased by 4.45 million barrels to 437 million barrels last week; US crude oil imports increased by 147,000 barrels per day to 7.1 million barrels per day last week.



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Summary of investment bank views

Ruilian Bank: The extension of the Brexit schedule has increased uncertainty;

Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Swiss Union Bank, believes that the extension of the Brexit schedule has slightly increased uncertainty, which means that the pound is unlikely to rise sharply against the dollar in the short term; the bottom line is that the pound is still viable. But it takes longer to show up.

Westpac Bank: The risk of a recession in the US is on the rise, and the Fed may not stand still next week;

1 Westpac analysts believe that the US bond yield curve has recently become steep again, US stocks have rebounded to near the high of the year, and the news from external markets such as Europe has also turned to a good situation, which has already made investors Lowering the bet on the US economy going to recession in the short term;

2 At the same time, the fall in the US dollar index has also eased the pressure on the Fed. This means that the Fed’s prospects for action at next week’s policy meeting are still variable. The urgency to continue to cut interest rates has been reduced since the beginning of this month. Watching economic data, especially the trend of inflation at the end of the shopping season at the end of the year, has re-emerged as one of its policy options.

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