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International financial news

International financial news

[Fed meeting minutes: economic downside risks increase, market expectations for easing too high] September FOMC minutes show that Fed officials worry about the risk of the US economic outlook, and the possibility of a model of recession in the medium term is significantly increased. The minutes discussed in detail the differences within the committee on the future interest rate path. Several officials mentioned that the market is too high for easing expectations, and officials began to discuss when to stop easing.

[Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the US economy is good, but faces some risks.] It is important that the Fed maintain inflation near the target level so that there is room for adjusting monetary policy and maintaining expected stability.

[EIA's refined oil inventories plummeted last week, but the output reached a new high] As of the week of October 4, the US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.927 million barrels, and for four consecutive weeks, Cushing's inventories increased by 941,000 barrels, but gasoline inventories decreased by 121.3. Millions of barrels, refined oil inventories hit the largest decline since March; crude oil production rose to a record high of 12.6 million barrels per day.

[Saudi Ami: will fully restore maximum capacity at the end of November] Saudi Aramco CEO said that Saudi Aramco is expected to restore the maximum oil production capacity of 12 million barrels per day by the end of November. Production in October was around 9.9 million barrels per day, reaching the level before the attack in mid-September.



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Manufacturing Production



BOE Gov Carney Speaks




Summary of investment bank views

Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommends selling USD/JPY, the currency pair will fall to 100 

Adarsh Sinha, co-head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said investors should sell the dollar against the yen as the dollar strengthens. Shorting the yen is the preferred deal for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
In the next few months, the dollar against the yen is expected to fall to nearly 100. In a safe-haven environment, the dollar will weaken and the yen will be supported.

Commerzbank: EUR/USD maintains a rebound

Technical analysis by Commerzbank believes that the euro has rebounded from the 1.0892 at the bottom of the weekly trading range, and is currently relatively stable. The short-term attempt to build the bottom gradually will be required to close above the four-month trend line at 1.1022, thus confirming this expectation. To ease the downward pressure, the market may rise to the high point of 1.1110 in mid-September. Once it is above the point, the bottom shape will be confirmed. The target will see the 200-day moving average at 1.1226. On the downside, if it closes below 1.0879, the target will be thereafter. Look at the January 2017 low of 1.0829, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 rally at 1.0814.

National Australia Bank: AUD/USD remains further up to 0.7000

National Australia Bank discussed the technical prospects of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. It believes that there is room for further increase to 0.7000. It recorded a low level for many years last week, once again highlighting the strong buying demand below 0.6700. It has been three consecutive since last Wednesday (October 2). The day closed up, confirming the new uptrend in short-term construction; the kinetic energy indicator in the daily chart failed to confirm the multi-year low, and the short-term momentum indicator is improving, but it is too early to confirm that the medium-term uptrend has been formed, from the perspective of many weeks. Looking at the outlook for the exchange rate, it is expected to test the mid-September high of 0.6900 in the next few weeks.

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