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International financial news

International financial news


[API report: US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.92 million barrels to 419.94 million barrels last week] US crude oil imports last week decreased by 726,000 barrels per day to 6.01 million barrels per day.

[US September ISM manufacturing PMI index hit a new low for more than 10 years, Trump once again attacked the Fed] According to data released by the American Institute of Supply Management on Tuesday, the US ISM manufacturing index of 47.8 in September fell below 50 glory for two consecutive months. , the lowest since June 2009. US President Trump accused Fed Chairman Powell and his central bank colleagues of hurting manufacturing.
[Ireland's European Minister: The Brexit proposal in the newspaper is unacceptable] Ireland's Helen McEntee said that the British report on the post-Brexit border reported by the Telegraph was unacceptable.

[Drakey said that fiscal stimulus may allow the European Central Bank to raise interest rates earlier] European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that using a more relaxed budget policy to tie in with the ECB’s monetary stimulus will herald a faster period of ultra-low interest rates. End, thereby mitigating the damage caused by negative interest rates.

[Ecuador announces its withdrawal from OPEC in 2020] The Ecuadorian Ministry of Energy and Non-Renewable Natural Resources said on Tuesday that Ecuador will withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on January 1, 2020.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

06:30

CHF

CPI

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

14:50

USD

FOMC Member Williams Speaks



Summary of investment bank views

Danske Bank: EUR/USD on a one-month target of 1.10




Danske Bank expects that the Fed will eventually move ahead of the yield curve, pushing the euro higher against the dollar; geopolitical tensions, global manufacturing downturns, slow adjustments in the Fed and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, all of which put pressure on the US and the euro zone. Although the US economy still looks relatively strong, it has been more stable at the current weaker level, and it is more likely to be better than the two economies.


The Fed’s more radical interest rate cuts put this expectation at a large upside risk. The current market price of the Fed’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points in October is about 50%. US ISM data and non-agricultural data will affect the euro against the US dollar in the short term. The central bank's strong forward-looking guidance will offset the impact of the Fed's continued interest rate cut in the short term. The Fed will eventually take the lead and push the euro against the US dollar. Therefore, the expectation of the euro against the US dollar remains unchanged for one month. The 3-month target was 1.10, the 6-month target was 1.13, and the 12-month target was 1.15.


Credit Suisse: Strategically maintain a bearish stand against the US dollar




Credit Suisse discussed the technical outlook of the British pound against the US dollar. From a strategic point of view, it maintains a bearish stance. The exchange rate continues to test the key support at 1.2286 and 1.2284, which is constructed by the 55-day moving average and price support. The current pressure is at 1.2337, short-term risk. It may continue to weaken. If it closes below 1.2284, it will fall to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2270 in September, and the support level of 1.2234 in early September. The exchange rate should fall below these points in turn and open again. Upward test the long-term uptrend line at 1.1963 and the September low of the door at 1.1959; but if it breaks above 1.2337, it may rise back to 1.2381, with resistance levels of 1.2414, 1.2499, 1.2503 and 1.2582.


Wells Fargo: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a loose cycle until 2020, when the Australian dollar is temporarily facing downward pressure




In the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday, although the assessment of the Australian economy was more positive, the Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have opened the door for further interest rate cuts. In the interest rate statement and the subsequent speech of RBA Chairman Lowe, the policy makers’ remarks were consistent with the tendency to further relax. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to remain inactive for the rest of the year, but we expect the bank to further ease monetary policy by 2020.


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