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International financial news

International financial news

[EIA Report: Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.412 million barrels to 419.5 million barrels in addition to strategic reserves] Gasoline inventories increased by 519,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 2.978 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.256 million barrels; US domestic crude oil production last week Increase 100,000 barrels to 12.5 million barrels per day.

[Fed Evans believes that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates again] Chicago Fed President Evans said on Wednesday that thanks to strong consumer spending, the US economy remains strong and the outlook is optimistic; relying on the rate cut we have agreed to allow inflation to There was a little overshoot in the forecast period, so I don't think I have to cut interest rates any more. Evans’s remarks indicate that he is not among the seven people who expect the FOMC to cut interest rates again next month or December.

[Federal Board of Directors Brainer: The reversal of market turmoil is only due to the imbalance between supply and demand] The recent surge in overnight lending rates prompted the Fed to inject tens of billions of dollars into the market. This is the result of a “simple imbalance” between supply and demand. This is seen as a sign that the credit market is in deeper predicament.

[Johnson invites the opposition party to vote in no confidence] According to foreign media reports, after the British Supreme Court announced that Prime Minister Johnson was temporarily closed to the parliament, the local government on the 25th, Prime Minister Johnson appeared in the parliament. In the parliament, Johnson repeated the same thing over and over again, saying that if the "Brexit" agreement could not be reached by the end of October, he would comply with the request and agree to extend the Brexit deadline. But he also said that the UK will leave the EU on October 31. "Either an agreement is reached or no agreement is reached." Johnson said he also invited the opposition party to vote against his government.

[It is reported that the EU is considering adding tariffs to more than 4 billion US dollars of US goods]



News and Data



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Summary of investment bank views

UOB Bank of Singapore: U.S. refers to further upside and peaks below 100

UOB said in the analysis that the dollar is expected to rise further before falling to 95.80 in the second half of 2020. Among the major currency pairs, the strength of the US dollar against the euro and the Australian dollar is expected to gradually weaken. After the recent uncertainty has passed, the euro is expected to rise from 1.10 to 1.14, and the Australian dollar will climb from 0.68 to 0.71. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to rise, peaking below 100 and falling to 95.8 before the third quarter of next year.

Barclays and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have been bearish on the euro and fell to 1.08 at the end of the year.

Barclays' latest forecast said that the euro's recent stability will not last long, and will steadily decline to a low of nearly 20 years in 2020; the euro will fall to 1.09 at the end of the year, and will fall to 1.05 at the end of June 2020, and fall to September. 1.03. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s position is even more pessimistic. It believes that the euro plunged 200 points to 1.08 before the end of the year. If there are more risks, the decline may be even greater. However, in the long run, Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintains a more optimistic position. The euro will rebound to 1.15 by the end of 2020.

TD Securities: short-term bearish EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

TD Securities said that from a strategic point of view, short-term bearish euro-dollar and euro-yen against the yen, the euro zone's series of manufacturing purchasing managers' index weakened earlier this week, the German manufacturing sector further deteriorated, highlighting the euro zone's economic growth Further slowdown, which led to the downward pressure on the euro, the euro is more and more likely to test the 1.0925 key support level against the dollar; the euro against the yen is also likely to continue to weaken.

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