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4 data release you don’t miss out on Wednesday

[API report: US crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels to 423.9 million barrels last week] US crude oil imports last week decreased by 183,000 barrels per day to 6.7 million barrels per day.

According to media reports, US House Speaker Pelosi said that she will announce a formal impeachment investigation of Trump on the 24th local time.
[Russian Energy Minister Novak: Russia will comply with OPEC + production cut targets in September] Russian Energy Minister Novak said that Russia will abide by the OPEC+ agreement to reduce production commitments, by the end of the month, all parameters will be met.

[British Prime Minister Johnson retaliates against the Supreme Court ruling and vows to leave the European Union at the end of October.] Although the Brexit strategy failed in the UK Supreme Court, British Prime Minister Johnson responded to the ruling and vowed to lead regardless of whether the agreement was reached or not. The UK will withdraw from the EU next month.

[German Economic Minister says the country's stimulus plan is not likely to happen] German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Tuesday that Germany is not on the verge of recession and that old-fashioned stimulus plans are no longer popular.



News and Data



Official Cash Rate



Credit Suisse Economic Expectations



CBI Realized Sales



FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Summary of investment bank views

Citibank: EUR/USD support at 1.0980 continues, New Zealand Federal Reserve will not move

Citibank discussed the outlook for the euro on Tuesday, and it is expected that the near 1.0980 will be the more solid bottom of the euro against the dollar. Citibank also expects the New Zealand Federal Reserve’s policy meeting to remain inactive.

The Eurozone's PMI is undoubtedly disappointing, but the European Central Bank has just relaxed its policy on September 12, and the market needs to spend more time to see the policy's entry into force (which may explain the calming of the euro's price after the data is released). The data is not bullish for the euro, but at the same time, the stronger base of the EUR/USD near the 1.0980 area will continue to remain, especially as the market is waiting for the following two events: 1. Sino-US trade negotiations in October; The prospects of the corresponding fiscal policy of the EU countries after the European Central Bank relaxed the policy.

The market is still awaiting the upcoming New Zealand Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. In August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first time since March 2011, to ensure that economic growth and inflation expectations remain unchanged in the coming years. Citibank analysts now expect it to remain inactive.

Credit Suisse: USD/JPY is expected to remain unchanged, suggesting rallies to sell

Credit Suisse discussed the strategic outlook for the dollar against the yen on Tuesday, saying it is keeping the rallies selling strategy. The expectation for the yen remains unchanged. The Bank of Japan’s focus in October turned to the effect of the increase in consumption tax, which made us tend to sell in the range of 108.20/50 and the dollar against the yen before the 109.40 resistance level. Yesterday's clear break through the 107.50 support level is exciting, with a fairly trading volume in 30 seconds, but this breakthrough is unlikely to continue. It is best to wait for a better level and take advantage of the 119 position of the EUR/JPY.

National Australia Bank: This week the New Zealand Federal Reserve is expected to remain inactive, thus controlling market panic

National Australia Bank (NAB) released a customer report on Tuesday that the New Zealand Federal Reserve is expected to remain inactive this week, thus avoiding market panic. The unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points last month has already shown a boost to market confidence. However, the negative impact has also begun to appear, and companies are less willing to expand their investment after a large-scale interest rate cut. At the same time, consumers are more willing to pay off their debts than to increase spending.

In view of this, the RBNZ's interest rate cuts may bring more shock to the market, so it may postpone the interest rate cut again until the November policy meeting. It is expected that the New Zealand dollar will remain consolidating against the US dollar in the short-term until the next wave of declines. The target for the US dollar is expected to reach 0.6150. It is likely to look to the middle of 0.60-0.63 in the near future.

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