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International financial news

International financial news

[API report: US crude oil inventories increased by 592,000 barrels to 422.5 million barrels last week] US crude oil imports increased by 129,000 barrels per day to 6.9 million barrels per day last week.

[Saudi Energy Minister said oil supply returned to pre-attack level] According to foreign media reports, Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said that Saudi Aramco’s 50% reduction in oil production has been resumed, and the Saudi oil market will Completely restored at the end of September. He also said that oil reserves can effectively cope with the crisis. In addition, Saudi Aramco Chairman Lumayyan said that an IPO (initial public offering) will be conducted within one year.

[European Central Bank Management Committee Villeluwa: Eurozone countries should use fiscal space to support economic growth, the European Central Bank has no reason to change its inflation target in the upcoming strategic assessment]

[Korea officially removed Japan from the export whitelist] According to the Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources officially announced the implementation of the "Improvement of Import and Export Notices for Strategic Goods" on the 18th to remove Japan from the export whitelist. This is another response taken after South Korea filed a complaint with the WTO on Japan’s trade restrictions.



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Summary of investment bank views

Nomura: The Fed is under the pressure of a chaotic currency market or even more doves


Fed Chairman Powell may have to resolve the chaos in the dollar currency market at this week's monetary policy meeting. If Powell cuts interest rates by 25 basis points and continues to view the Fed's easing policy as a “mid-term policy” adjustment, it will “catastrophically” exacerbate the liquidity pressure of the money market before the end of the year. After the repurchase market was overstretched on Monday, “the Fed’s pressure to make big moves increased”, not just 25 basis points for ordinary interest rate cuts. Later this year, the Fed’s return to balance sheet expansion and/or deeper interest rate cuts may have a real impact.

ANZ Bank: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again this week, and the Bank of Japan will not move.

ANZ released an analysis on Tuesday that the Fed and the Bank of Japan are under easing pressure, but the Fed is expected to take action this week, while the Bank of Japan will remain inactive.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. We expect it to maintain a loose position, and most members will agree to cut interest rates three times in 2019. At the same time, it is believed that the dot matrix will also move downwards, but the distribution around the median will be more dispersed, as the differences in the demand for rate cuts by members are also increasing. Fed Chairman Powell will face even greater challenges. However, we still expect him to emphasize that the Fed will take the necessary measures to ensure continued economic expansion.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is also under easing pressure. Given that other major central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, the Bank of Japan’s desire to achieve inflation targets has become even more elusive. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently said that the momentum to achieve the inflation target has been maintained, so there is no need for further easing. But we believe that the Bank of Japan will still take action when necessary.

Westpac Bank: As soon as October is slow, November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates again into a "high probability event"

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting consolidated the foundation for another rate cut in 2019. As for the rate cut, the Reserve Bank of Australia may prefer November. The Fed will also update its economic and inflation expectations, although there will be no major changes in its expectations. Although it is expected that no adjustments will be made in November, the Fed raised its unemployment rate forecast in August, lowered its salary growth forecast, and delayed the return of inflation to 2-3% for one year. Therefore, the Fed may not wait and see more. In October, it will promote interest rate cuts.

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