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International financial news

International financial news

[British Prime Minister Johnson: The chances of reaching a Brexit agreement are rising] In either case, the EU will not be asked to agree to postpone the Brexit deadline.  I believe we will reach a Brexit agreement at the EU summit in October.

[If the British Prime Minister Johnson plans to lose in the Brexit vote, he will hold an early election on October 14]

[European Central Bank Watch: The euro zone currency market currently expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 20 basis points in September by 60%]

[Russia's Ministry of Energy said that Russia's crude oil production in accordance with the OPEC agreement in August was 143,000 barrels per day]

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Summary of investment bank views

Mitsubishi UFJ: If the UK pre-election, the pound will fall below $1.20

Mitsubishi-Japan strategist Lee Hardman believes that the UK's early elections will have a negative impact on the pound and may push it below $1.20.  The pound fell nearly 1% against the dollar to $1.2036, hitting its lowest point since August 12, and the team of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to hold an early election if a member supported the rebel plan to prevent a non-agreement.  Hardman added that if the government wins a majority and seeks a non-agreement to leave the European Union, it is expected that the pound will fall below $1.20 and then fall to $1.10.

Commerzbank: EUR/JPY has bottomed around 116.50

Technical analysis of the German commercial bank pointed out that the euro against the yen may have bottomed near the bottom of the recent trading range of 116.50, still in a very short-term line, the relative strength indicator has not confirmed the recent low of 116.42, the support is at 116.36,  

Therefore, the current forecast is likely to have reached its end; on the upside, the initial resistance is at the 117.99 moving average and the low of 120.06 on July 25, and the short-term key resistance is at the 120-day moving average of 120.10 and the three-month trend line of 120.39.  It needs to be re-closed above the point to confirm the continued interest of the purchase; on the downside, if it falls below the support at 116.36, it may test the 2017 low of 114.86 and then fall below the 2012-2019 support level last week.  Still have downside risks.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Swiss Central Bank intervention has little effect, and the Swiss franc’s appreciation is expected to continue

Bank of America Merrill Lynch discussed the prospects of the Swiss franc and believed that the intervention of the Swiss National Bank is unlikely to curb the further appreciation of the Swiss franc. The global risk continued in August, helping the Swiss franc to record strong performance in the month.

The euro against the Swiss franc has clearly fallen below 1.10  This level is the level of intervention by the SNB. Swiss weekly spot deposits and monthly foreign exchange reserve data confirm that the SNB has continued to intervene in recent months, but has not effectively curbed the Swiss franc so far, unless Switzerland.

The central bank has significantly increased the level of intervention. Otherwise, this will be enough to make the Swiss franc depreciate. The geopolitical risk will continue. Italy may hold general elections in advance. In addition, the situation of the Brexit and the international trade situation need to be concerned.  There are few, and it is expected that the appreciation of the Swiss franc will continue.

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