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NOVOX International Financial Information

[EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories removed from strategic reserves last week decreased by 2.077 million barrels to 532.3 million barrels]

EIA gasoline inventories increased by 2.796 million barrels and refined oil inventories increased by 9.935 million barrels during the week to May 29. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels to 11.2 million barrels/day; commercial crude oil, excluding strategic reserves, imported 6.179 million barrels/day last week, a decrease of 1.021 million barrels/day from the previous week; US crude oil exports fell by 382,000 barrels/day last week To 2.794 million barrels per day; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 4 million barrels to 647.8 million barrels last week.

[The Bank of Canada keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%] 

The Bank of Canada expects the economy to contract by 12% to 22% in the second quarter, which was previously expected to contract by 15% to 30%. The Bank of Canada stated that the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic appears to have peaked, and the economy is expected to decline by 10%-20% in the second quarter, and any further policy actions will be calibrated to provide the necessary monetary easing necessary to achieve the inflation target Degree, the economy is expected to resume growth in the third quarter.

[Germany adopts 130 billion euros economic recovery plan] 

On the evening of the 3rd local time, after two days of deliberation, the German coalition government finally adopted a 130 billion euros economic recovery plan, involving child subsidies, tax cuts, and support for enterprises. Rescue measures. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that this economic recovery plan will cover 2020 and 2021, of which 120 billion euros will be borne by the federal level. Measures include reducing the general rate of 19% of German VAT to 16% from July 1 to December 31, 2020, and reducing the preferential rate of 7% for certain products (food, publications, etc.) to 5%; Industries with severe impacts can apply for "transition assistance"; allocate 50 billion euros to promote the development of electric vehicles and set up more charging piles; German railways and public transport companies will receive federal financial support and so on. (CCTV News)

[The Fed expands the number and types of entities that can use municipal bond instruments]

[SFC: Selected-tier companies can apply for transfer to the Science and Technology Board and GEM listing after one year of listing] 

The CSRC issued the "Guidelines on the Transfer of Listed Companies in the National SME Share Transfer System". The enterprise applying for transfer to the market shall be a company listed on the selective layer of the New Third Board, and it shall be continuously listed on the selective layer for more than one year. If a listed company transfers to the stock market for listing, it shall meet the listing conditions for the transfer to the stock market. The conditions for transfer board listing should be basically consistent with the conditions for initial public offering and listing, and the exchange may propose differentiated requirements based on regulatory needs. During the pilot period, eligible companies listed on the New Third Board may apply for transfer to the Science and Technology Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

[Securities Times Front Page: The land-sharing economy should be a temporary need. All parties should have a calm mind] 

From the perspective of historical development, the land-sharing business model has increasingly become a useful supplement and tributary to economic activities. At the moment of economic difficulties, any legal way to increase consumption and employment is worthy of encouragement, and land stalls are also within the scope of attempts. However, all parties should be calm and should not have too high expectations. In addition, it is also necessary to remind regulators everywhere that every effort is made today to wait until the economy improves, and to take hawkers to operate.



News and Data




ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)










Construction PMI (May)





ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: the odds of the euro falling again against the dollar are reduced

NOVOX International Financial Information

Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ expects that by the fourth quarter of this year, the euro against the US dollar target will be at around 1.1300, and the European Central Bank is very likely to take action again; by reaching an economic recovery fund agreement, the market will have an economic outlook on the euro zone after the epidemic is unsealed The optimism of the economy is heating up, which is the main driving force for the euro to rise against the dollar, that is, European officials finally agreed to provide a more effective package of support plans for the major economies in the euro area.

The reason why the exchange rate broke above the 1.10 mark is that progress has been made on the key issue of economic recovery; in addition, the German Constitutional Court ruling is not expected to question the legitimacy of other quantitative easing programs, because it will prevent the European Central Bank from taking action if the German Constitution The court ruled that it would show firm independence and encourage the European Central Bank to take strong action; the expectation of the euro falling again is weakening. The target range of 1.06-1.10 may have been moved to 1.08-1.12, but if international trade tensions Further upgrades may pressure the euro, so we remain cautious about the upside.

Trader: Don’t ignore that over 1.12 billion EURUSD options will expire near 1.12

Traders said that the euro against the dollar is now back to pre-crisis levels, be careful about profit-taking and selling, and also pay attention to position adjustments; more than 3 billion euro-dollar options expired near $1.1200 on Wednesday and 1.1205-10 on Thursday There are more than 1 billion Euro options expiring, and there are 2.3 billion expiry in 1.1220-35 on Friday. The related delta hedging and exercise prices are concentrated around 1.12, which will help curb the trend of foreign exchange. The market awaits the ECB interest rate decision, and the volatility risk premium for overnight options is at a one-month high.

Rabobank: Euro against British pound one month target on 0.91

NOVOX International Financial Information

Rabobank analysts said that the statement issued by the UK and EU negotiators on Friday (June 5) may provide key guidance for the trend of the pound. The expected level of the euro against the pound in a month is 0.91; any related trade negotiations The news of the breakthrough will drive the pound to rise, although the lack of details in the Brexit plan may quickly dampen optimism; if the negotiating parties cannot bridge the differences, then the market will start next year between the United Kingdom and the European Union ) The expectation of trade under the terms will rise, which will put pressure on the pound.

CIBC: Global central bank initiatives boosted the Australian dollar and well-performing emerging market currencies during the quarter

NOVOX International Financial Information

Bipan Rai, head of foreign exchange strategy at Imperial Bank of Canada, said that during periods of economic downturn and trade tensions, the Australian dollar and the best-performing emerging market currencies this quarter should not normally be the beneficiaries, but the central bank’s stimulus measures and “fear of missing out” They are being pushed higher. The Australian dollar is the best performing G-10 currency in the second quarter; the Indonesian rupiah, ruble, Colombia and Chilean peso are the best performing emerging market currencies; investors need to consider the large amount of liquidity injected by the global authorities into the financial system; currently not In traditional free market trends, prices have divorced from fundamentals.

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NOVOX International Financial Information