International Financial Information
[The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a target range of 0% -0.25% on Sunday and said it would expand its balance sheet by at least $ 700 billion in the coming weeks]
[European Group statement: So far, we have committed at least 10% of GDP to provide liquidity, and these figures may be coefficients. If necessary, we will take all further coordinated and decisive policy actions, including fiscal measures to support economic growth and employment]
[EU officials: Eurozone finance ministers agree to a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 1% of GDP to deal with the impact of new coronary pneumonia]
[Global negative interest rate bonds recorded the largest weekly decline in total] With the intensification of the epidemic, people's expansion of the global economic recession has increased the interest rate of investment-grade bond yields, and the scale of global negative yield bonds has just reached the largest record Weekly decline. According to media statistics, last week the global negative interest rate investment-grade bonds decreased by nearly $ 3 trillion to $ 11.7 trillion, and once reached $ 17 trillion last year.
[Sweden increases QE 300 billion, and says all tools are available]
[NYSE President: It is important to keep the market open. If the market is closed, it will increase investor concerns]
[Trump: U.S. economy could go into recession due to epidemic] Trump said the worst virus outbreak could end in July, August or later; nationwide isolation is not currently considered; the U.S. economy may go into recession due to epidemic .
[CNVM, the Spanish stock market regulator, said from Tuesday that it will be banned from establishing and increasing net short positions in the Spanish stock market for one month]
Summary of Institutional Perspectives
Dutch International Group analyst Chris Turner: Fed emergency interest rate cut and QE will eventually make the dollar lower
After the Fed's emergency rate cut, other central banks are expected to cut rates this week; however, the role of monetary policy can only end there, and the focus will be on what measures governments are willing to take to counter the economic impact of the epidemic. US GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of -5% in the second quarter; looking at the United States, the only anti-epidemic bill passed by the House earlier on Saturday looks very fragmented and may even be rejected by the Senate.
The prospect of a US fiscal stimulus package of 5% of GDP also looks out of reach, which will keep US stocks under pressure in March. For the U.S. dollar, the new QE is expected to eventually make the U.S. dollar lower, but when the financial system is not transparent, the timing of the U.S. dollar's sell-off is still uncertain. Our bank's position is that any strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro and the yen will It is temporary, and once the market regains confidence, the dollar will be sold off.
Credit Agricole: Short EUR / GBP entry point 0.9119, target 0.8800
Agricultural Credit Bank of France's position report on Monday (March 16) showed that the new short position of the euro against the British pound, the entry point is 0.9119, the target is 0.8800, and the stop loss is set at 0.9350. Analysts at the bank noted that the euro remained stable against the pound, but the exchange rate had moved more than 1.5 standard deviations from its fair value. As a result, a short trade in EUR / GBP was entered. The exchange rate almost triggered a sell trade last week.