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International financial news

International financial news 


[The European Central Bank believes that the economy has bottomed out, but there are still reasons to implement ultra-easy policies.] 
The minutes released by the European Central Bank show that European Central Bank policy makers were more optimistic about the economic situation at the December 12 meeting, but still Considering that there are a lot of risks, it is reasonable to implement an ultra-easy policy.

[The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that in order to ensure fairness, all electronic equipment, including computers, will be banned in the room where journalists have important economic reports such as employment and inflation data in advance.] 
William Beach Director William Beach wrote in a letter Thursday The agency, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has expressed concerns about the security of data caused by the lock-up mechanism, and the economic report will continue to be posted on the Ministry of Labor's website and on Twitter. Once the ban time is over, journalists can leave the room to post news.

[US retail sales rose 0.3% in December from the previous month, in line with expectations, and recorded the third consecutive month of growth] 
Although U.S. households have reduced their purchases of cars, they have increased their purchases of other types of goods, which may strengthen the United States The economy maintains a view of modest growth at the end of 2019.

[Fed Governor Bauman: As far as 2020 is concerned, the current FOMC interest rate may be appropriate if the outlook does not change.] 
The outlook for the housing market is encouraging. I tell housing builders that low interest rates will continue to support the housing construction industry. . The current household structure in the United States is positive for home builders and housing demand.

[US Senate passes US-Mexico-Canada agreement and will be handed over to President Trump for signature]

[U.S. Senate officially starts impeachment trial against President Trump] 

On the 16th local time, the U.S. Senate formally accepted the impeachment clause against President Trump, which means that the Senate impeachment trial has officially started. Trump responded that the Senate trial will proceed very quickly. He said the impeachment trial was a scam. However, the event on the 16th is just one of many procedural activities before the trial begins, and the formal trial is expected to begin on the 21st local time. The impeachment trial is the second stage of the impeachment process. In the 100-member Senate, two-thirds of the votes are needed to convict and fire Trump. It is widely expected that the Republican-controlled Senate will declare Trump innocent.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

00:30

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Dec) 

Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

Continuing Jobless Claims (Jan 3)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jan)

Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 

Retail Sales Control Group (Dec) 

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10) 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Jan 10) 

00:30

CAD

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

02:00

USD

Business Inventories (Nov)

Fed's Bowman speech 
NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) 

02:30

USD

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Jan 10)

03:30

USD

4-Week Bill Auction

05:00

EUR

ECB's President Lagarde speech

08:00

USD

Total Net TIC Flows (Nov)

Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Nov)

08:30

NZD

Business NZ PMI (Dec)

10:50

JPY

Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks (Jan 10)

Foreign Bond Investment (Jan 10)

11:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)

13:00

CNY

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)  

Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Dec)    

NBS Press Conference   

Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)      

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)  

Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)

15:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov) 

18:30

CHF

Producer and Import Prices (MoM) (Dec) 

Producer and Import Prices (YoY) (Dec) 

18:45

EUR

Budget (Nov) 

20:00

EUR

Global Trade Balance (Nov)

Trade Balance EU (Nov)

Current Account n.s.a (Nov)

Current Account s.a (Nov)

20:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Dec) 

Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Dec) 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

21:00

EUR

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)

Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) (Dec)

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) (Dec)

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 

Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Dec) 

Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) (Dec) 

Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) (Nov) 

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 

Construction Output s.a (MoM) (Nov) 



Summary of investment bank views

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: European Bank ’s potential hawk compromise may help the euro rise to 1.15 at the end of the year




Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA) released a research report on Thursday (January 16) that pointed out that the European Central Bank may have a hawk compromise during the year, which poses upside risks to the euro. It is expected that the euro against the dollar will rise to 1.15 at the end of the year. The bank's analysts said that the European Central Bank is currently in a mode similar to automatic cruise, implementing a smaller QE, but there is no possibility of further interest rate cuts. In the end, the European Central Bank will decide whether to relax some QE restrictions before the end of the year, so that the QE stimulus effect next year can be continued. Although small technical adjustments may win us time, it is still far from the end of QE, so market risks still exist.

At the same time, we are seeing the negative impact of negative interest rate policies rising, and several ECB officials have recently expressed similar concerns. Our economists expect that more stratified interest rates are exactly what the European Central Bank is doing to offset such effects. We are beginning to pay attention to whether the European Central Bank will pursue the Swedish central bank's approach to restore negative interest rates to zero interest rates and strengthen forward-looking guidance. We expect the ECB's compromise decision to boost the euro to some extent.


Mitsubishi UF: Short GBP / USD, entry point 1.3080 target 1.2800




Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Bank's position report on Thursday (January 16) showed that the bank executed a short limit order for GBP / USD with an entry point of 1.3080, a target of 1.2800, and a stop loss set at 1.3200; the Bank analysts said that we see the downside risks of the pound being accumulated due to negative factors at the domestic macro level and the risk of further relaxation of the Bank of England is also rising. In addition, the political situation in the EU and the UK made this quarter's negotiations quite difficult. Market participants have begun to believe that the difficult rebound in domestic economic performance should force the Bank of England to relax policy. Although it is unlikely that the time for action will be in January, Should appear at the May meeting.


HSBC: Sterling has underperformed since UK elections



HSBC strategist Dominic Bunning and others said that since Boris Johnson won the election in December, the pound has not risen as HSBC expected, but the bank expects more positive data to boost the pound's strength in the coming months. They wrote in a research report that in the relative world of foreign exchange, all that is needed for the rise of the pound is some relative improvement, whether it is relative to other economies, relative to previous trends, or relative to expectations; they believe these conditions Both will benefit the pound, which will lead to a strong rise, especially considering that the pound has been a popular short target for the past few years and is still far below the long-term fair value range.

Acknowledging that they had expected the “political certainty” brought about by the December election to drive the pound up “significantly,” the result was not so; at present, both data and exchange rate momentum appear to be heavily skewed downward. But at the moment we are willing to go against the bearish atmosphere; given negative sentiment prevails, if the data improves, even with a small improvement, the pound may gain greater potential for upside. GBP / USD is forecast to rise to 1.45 and EUR / GBP to fall to 0.76 in 2020.


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