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International financial news

International financial news

[U.S. durable goods orders in November fell by 2.0% from the initial value, the expected value increased by 1.5%, the previous value was revised down from an increase of 0.5% to an increase of 0.2%]

The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was the lowest since May, and the decrease in defense orders was the main reason; defense capital goods orders fell by 35.6% month-on-month. Excluding defense factors, overall orders rose 0.8% in November.


[US sanctions "North Stream-2" project attacked by Russia and Germany]


[Statistics Canada: Canada ’s economy contracted 0.1% in October as manufacturing was hit by a strike in the US auto industry. This is the first month-on-month decline since February]


[Russian central bank: Our bank's basic expectation is that the Federal Reserve will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged until 2022, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates once next year]


[Analysts expect oil prices to be flat in 2020 due to OPEC + production cuts offset by increased production in other regions]

Analysts point out that as the impact of OPEC + production cuts will be offset by increased production in other countries, and demand outlook is mixed, oil prices will remain suppressed in 2020. Analysts believe that oil prices will rise in the middle of the year as demand in emerging markets strengthens and OPEC + cuts cut global inventories. Goldman Sachs analysts report that they have raised their oil price expectations from $ 60 to $ 63 per barrel because the inventory path is tighter than we previously expected, especially in the first half of 2020.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

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 Holiday  

Ireland - Christmas Eve

All Day

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Sweden - Christmas Eve

00:30

  USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)

00:30

  USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)

00:30

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GDP (MoM) (Oct)

02:00

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New Home Sales (Nov)

02:00

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New Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)

Summary of investment bank views

Dansk Bank: EUR / USD will trade around 1.11 in 1-3 months




Although our bank recently raised our 12-month forecast for the euro against the US dollar to 1.15, we still believe that the euro lacks upside support. The European Central Bank is now basically a "constant" in the foreign exchange market. The improvement in global economic growth expectations, higher commodity prices, inflation expectations, and generally rising stock markets have nothing to do with the trend of the euro. Generates considerable support. Therefore, we expect the euro to trade around 1.11 within 1-3 months.

SOCIETE GENERALE Bank: Funds flowing into euro-denominated assets fail to boost euro




The recent flow of funds into euro-denominated assets has not boosted the euro, as these funds have been offset by hedging operations; the different patterns between the euro-denominated yield curve and the dollar-denominated yield curve mean that the For basic investors, buying euro-denominated assets and hedging foreign exchange risk is cheap and attractive; the European Central Bank ’s “negative interest rate and quantitative easing combination punch” has squeezed European and foreign investors into euro-denominated Assets and pushed the euro weaker, but if the Fed cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens again, the euro will gain a significant boost against the dollar, although this move is not imminent.


Standard Chartered: Sterling will rise but volatility on the way up will be greater




Steve Englander, head of global G-10 foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said that we still expect the pound to strengthen, but there will be greater volatility on the way up. The pound is expected to reach 1.38 by the end of the third quarter of 2020 and reach 1.40 by the end of 2020; the pound is currently at about 1.2940 and is on track to fall for the fifth consecutive day. Englander said in a client report that investor concerns about "falling cliff" Brexit risks should diminish because political motivations do not support the risk of major disruptions to the economy. We believe the pound is stronger, but it will be jagged, and market volatility will intensify because there is no reason to expect that political fringe policies will disappear.


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