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International financial news

International financial news

[Grasley Spokesperson, Chairman of the Treasury Committee of the United States Senate: Grassley spoke with Trade Representative Lighthizer on Monday on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and soon announced an agreement]
It is reported that US Trade Representative Lighthizer and appointed chief adviser Kushner will travel to Mexico on Tuesday to negotiate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

[Euro zone Sentix investor confidence index of 0.7 in December, returns to positive for the first time since May this year]
Economic sentiment around the euro zone continued to rise in the later months of the year. However, for most eurozone countries, the outlook for next year is still quite challenging, and it remains to be seen whether this situation will continue.

[British Chamber of Commerce: UK economic growth may slow to 1% by 2020]

The latest forecast released by the British Chamber of Commerce on Monday states that the UK's economic growth is expected to slow from 1.3% this year to 1% in 2020. The British Chamber of Commerce believes that the weak outlook for business investment, trade and consumer spending will put pressure on economic growth prospects. Business investment is expected to shrink by 1.0% in 2019 and further shrink by 0.7% in 2020. The British Chamber of Commerce's responsible Thiru said that unless the British government takes decisive steps, the British economy will face years of slump.



News and Data



Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 



GDP (QoQ) (Q3)



GDP (YoY) (Q3)






Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)



German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)

Summary of investment bank views

ING: Fed will stay on its feet this week and cut interest rates twice in the first half of next year

James Knightley, senior economist at Rabobank International, said that after three consecutive interest rate cuts, Fed officials believe they have done enough to stabilize the economy. This week the Fed will stay on its feet, focusing on the Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and the bitmap on 2020 Annual interest rate guidelines. Although last Friday's non-agricultural data is very bright, other data indicate that the US economy is slowing.
It is expected that there will be more risk of rate cuts before the final rate hike. Considering continued trade uncertainty, weak external demand and a strong U.S. dollar, we agree with market expectations that US economic growth and bond yields will weaken. The political uncertainty surrounding next year's election may also prompt companies to take a more cautious approach to expansion plans. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in the first half of next year, each time by 25 basis points.

Deutsche Bank: European Central Bank to remain at this week's meeting

Deutsche Bank said that the market is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but the meeting will be closely watched as this is the first monetary policy decision since Lagarde took office. The bank said that the words of the European Central Bank President Lagarde at the press conference and whether to update his assessment of future policies are hot topics worthy of attention. Last week the bank's economists had predicted that the committee might be cautious and believed that the risk balance still tended to go down, but Lagarde would immediately change and would say "expected willingness to use all tools will depend on the possible policy Assessment of side effects. "

Danske Bank: If the Fed maintains a wait-and-see attitude this week, the euro may fall to 1.09 against the dollar in a month

Danske Bank (Danske) released on Monday the Fed's meeting prospects said that if the Fed maintains a wait-and-see attitude this week, the euro is expected to fall slightly against the dollar. After three interest rate cuts, we expect the Fed to hold interest rates unchanged this week, while policy statements are not expected to change significantly.

The focus of the market is on the 'dot map'. The biggest uncertainty now is the Fed's policy outlook next year. We expect most committees to release signals that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2020, but we would like to see if there are one or two committees who want to continue to cut interest rates next year, although this is not our basic scenario expectation.

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