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International financial news

International financial news

[API report: US crude oil inventories fell by 3.72 million barrels to 445.9 million barrels last week]
Gasoline inventory increased by 2.93 million barrels, refined oil inventory increased by 794,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 251,000 barrels. US crude oil imports fell by 678,000 barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day last week.

[European Central Bank's negative interest rate policy faces opposition from finance ministers]
According to people familiar with the matter, in the private contact between ECB officials and the finance ministers of the euro zone, more and more finance ministers expressed opposition to the ECB's negative interest rate policy. People familiar with the matter said that in secret economic-related discussions, the finance ministers of some countries in the euro area (especially the finance ministers of the Nordic countries) expressed doubts about the negative interest rate policy of the European Central Bank, complaining that the policy brought savings and pension systems. Negative Effects. The European Central Bank said that if governments are willing to take more economic stimulus measures, the negative interest rate policy will not last so long. The tension between the government and the European Central Bank reflects the disagreement between central bankers, which is Lagarde ’s first challenge after taking office.

[Iraq Oil Minister Kaban: Additional 400,000 barrels per day is not the final option. All member states need to share responsibility. It is not enough to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day. Additional OPEC + production reductions are needed. We are discussing additional 400,000 barrels / Day possibilities. The decline in demand growth next year will have a greater impact than the supply of non-OPEC countries. Whether to increase OPEC + production reduction efforts is determined by some member states]



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Summary of investment bank views

CIBC: Bank of Canada statement tomorrow misses October dovish, needs to focus on two key changes

The Bank of Canada's Imperial Commercial Bank (CIBC) released a central bank resolution foreseeing that the December meeting of the Bank of Canada is not expected to be as dovish as October, but there are two key changes to watch for. At present, the Bank of Canada is still very likely to stay on Wednesday and continue to discuss the global economic headwinds and trade uncertainty, but the market needs to pay attention to two major key statement changes that may occur. First, raise the previous quarter's GDP growth forecast; second, raise the income growth forecast. If these changes occur on Wednesday ’s statement, it means that the Bank of Canada ’s dovish tendency has fallen short of expectations. Although global risks are still on the downside, they are still in a balanced direction.

ANZ: NZD is expected to enter 2020 smoothly, bullish AUD / NZD

The ANZ Research Department discussed the prospects for the New Zealand dollar on Tuesday, saying that it will be bullish on the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar in the near future and is expected to buy on dips, but adopt a strategic neutral position on the New Zealand dollar in 2020; Change is a major obstacle to the Australian dollar. But we believe that this shift in expectations may be postponed until mid-2020. We don't expect the New Zealand dollar to fall as much as we had previously expected.

UBS: Expects greater pressure on U.S. dollar in second half of next year

The UBS report mentioned that international investors currently hold excessive amounts of US dollar bonds and stocks, but it is estimated that they will reduce their holdings in a timely manner. UBS expects the US dollar to be under greater pressure in the second half of next year, especially as it approaches the US presidential election. Three major factors will support the performance of the US dollar from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. First of all, the tighter federal funds at the end of the reporting period have led to pressure on the US currency market. Investors therefore often hold more US dollar cash than necessary.

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