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International financial news

[Merkel reiterates that German 5G construction does not exclude specific suppliers]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on the 8th that Germany attaches great importance to the safety requirements and verifiability of companies involved in the construction of 5G networks, but will not set standards for a specific supplier; she said that Germany will definitely To improve the security standards of 5G networks, all equipment suppliers must abide by the same security standards. As an equipment supplier, Huawei has actively participated in the construction of 2G and 3G networks in Germany. Germany will not set standards for a specific supplier. She also called on the EU to develop a unified 5G network security standard.

[Bloomberg founder Bloomberg is registered as a US Democratic presidential candidate]
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg submitted materials in Alabama on the 8th, registering for the 2020 presidential election of the Alabama Democratic primary candidate. Bloomberg, 77, is the founder and CEO of Bloomberg, with a net worth of $53.4 billion. From 2002 to 2013, he became the mayor of New York City, the largest city in the United States. He was a Republican and later turned into an independent person. He was registered as a Democrat last year.


[President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Opposing to cut interest rates, should retain ammunition for further policy measures]
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that he opposed the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last week, because the previous two interest rate cuts have provided the United States with a guarantee for global risks, and the Fed needs to retain ammunition. “I am very worried about our policy. Space," Bostic said. "From the historical perspective of our response to the recession, we don't have much room for it. I want to make sure that they are most effective when deploying tools."



[Iran discovers new oil fields; the country's oil reserves increase by one-third]

Iran is a global energy power, and it is reported that the country’s crude oil reserves account for 10% of global crude oil reserves. On Sunday, Iran’s President Rohani said that crude oil reserves were discovered in the oil rich Huzestan province in the southwest of the country. A new oilfield with a size of 53 billion barrels; this discovery has increased Iran's proven crude oil reserves by a third, reaching about 150 billion barrels.


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Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)

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Summary of investment bank views

UBS: The euro is under pressure due to global trade uncertainty and economic prospects, but the European economic recovery has emerged




UBS strategist Gaetan Peroux said the euro was lower against the dollar due to high global trade uncertainty and global economic growth. Eurozone retail sales data for September and final PMI for October unexpectedly rose, but few believe that the euro is about to rebound. However, despite this, the burgeoning economic recovery in the euro zone has emerged, and if this momentum continues, the euro will rebound against the dollar.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: USD/JPY Weekly Head and Shoulder Patterns Waiting for 110 Passes




Bank of America Merrill Lynch released a technical analysis report on the USD/JPY on Friday, saying that 110 is still the current important barrier and can help investors judge the prospects. A rise in the exchange rate of 109.32 should be an improvement in risk sentiment. The head and shoulders have been confirmed on October 15th. Since then, the exchange rate has broken above and closed above the 200-week moving average but has not yet broken the August high of 109.32. We believe that we will face the intensive resistance of the next stage of the 110th gear, so the 110 mark is very important for the judgment of the future trend.

On the other hand, we find that the USD/JPY has fallen below the four-year uptrend line on the weekly chart, and the formation of the bearish flag has also raised the bearish sentiment, so the rebound resistance is close to the 110 resistance. especially important. The current series of important resistances are distributed at 109.29-110.20. If you can break through here, it is expected to further confirm the shape of the head and shoulders, so look at 112.50 and 114.

Commerzbank: Sterling weekly falls, plagued by political uncertainty




Thu Lan Nguyen, a foreign exchange strategist at Commerzbank, pointed out that the unexpected dovish results of the Bank of England meeting did not last long on the pound. This shows that the market is currently focusing primarily on politics, not on fundamentals and monetary policy. A survey on Friday showed that employers in the UK had the lowest recruitment demand in October, the lowest in nearly eight years. The weaker employment data is in line with the deterioration of the UK economy, coupled with the uncertainty of the Brexit and weak global growth, which may make the Bank of England more dominating. In the medium and long term, this should at least limit the appreciation potential of the pound, but the overall direction of the pound will still be determined by the general election.

Mitsubishi UFJ: The UK's macro situation may put the pound under pressure in the near term or face downside risks 




In the short term, the pound can be expected to face downside risks. In terms of political situation, the British Labor Party will make the market feel uneasy about the upcoming general election if it makes progress in the polls. As the risk of the UK's Brexit is facing a stalemate again, the parliament may still be unable to pass the Brexit legislation. It is expected that the results of the election will lead to instability in the British government and the prospect of implementing loose fiscal measures will also be undermined. A key factor affecting the direction of the pound will be the performance of economic data. It is necessary to observe whether there is evidence that Brexit and other uncertainties are affecting the economy and consumption. The UK economy is expected to face negative momentum and employment data may be disappointing.


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