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International financial news

International financial news
[The UK's highest key interest rate remains unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations]
In the November interest rate decision, the rate hike-invariant-reduction rate was 0-7-2 (0-9-0 in September); the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to maintain the purchase of 10 billion pounds of non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds. Change, maintaining the size of the purchase of 435 billion pounds of assets unchanged.

[British central bank governor Carney: The risk surrounding the Bank of England's forecast biased down the UK, suggesting that the central bank's next monetary policy adjustment will be to cut interest rates]

[European Commission Chairman Juncker: Trump will not honor the car tariff threat to the EU]

European Commission President Juncker told the SÜD, that US President Trump will not impose tariffs on EU auto products next week as he threatened.



News and Data



Initial Jobless Claims



FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks 



Trade Balance (USD)



Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Oct)



German Trade Balance (Sep)



French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) 



EU Finance Ministers Meeting

Summary of investment bank views

The Fed’s continued interest rate cut is no longer a nail

The interest rate market is no longer certain that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates sometime in the next two years. CME Group's federal funds rate futures contract (with open positions until October 2021) did not priced a full 25 basis points cut interest rate. The overnight index swap is also only priced by the Fed to cut interest rates by 11 basis points in September 2021. The sell-off in global bonds also brought US Treasury yields to their highest level in two months on Thursday. After three interest rate cuts in 2019, traders are giving up on the Fed’s further interest rate cuts as signs of progress in Sino-US trade negotiations.

Commerzbank: GBP/USD may fall to 1.2784

German commercial bank technical analysis believes that the pound against the US dollar retracement from the 1.30 mark, it is very likely to fall to the June 25 high of 1.2784, as long as the June 25 high of 1.2784 and the previous decline of 23.6% Fibonacci Above the withdrawal of 1.2766, it is possible to test the 1.30 psychological barrier again. The upper target will be the 200-week moving average at 1.3131 and the May high at 1.3187, followed by the May high of 1.3187 and the high of the year at 1.3382.

Societe Generale: Maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards the euro against the dollar in the short term

Societe Generale discussed the outlook for the euro against the dollar and maintained a wait-and-see attitude in the short term. It is still trading in the lower half of the trading range for the past five years, but the euro-weighted trade index is only about 1% lower than five years ago, when the European Central Bank Increase the loose monetary policy to depreciate the euro. If the international trade situation leads to further narrowing of the dollar-renminbi trading range, then the euro-dollar trading range may be limited, while the euro breaks above 1.12 against the dollar. Then investors can buy, but if the international trade situation deteriorates, it should be sold.

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank: The euro still has upside potential, or it can rise to 1.12 level

The Mitsubishi UFJ Research Department discussed the outlook for the euro against the dollar on Thursday and expects it to rise further in the near term. The euro has barely moved relative to yesterday's negative news. This shows that although the news of trade negotiations has remained relatively limited (and there is no major bad news), the euro has a greater upside potential relative to the downside in the near term. The euro's optimistic US economic data this morning is heading towards the monthly low of 1.1060, but the euro's downside is limited.

From a technical analysis point of view, the euro is near the rebound relative strength index (RSI). As German bonds have climbed nearly 40 basis points since the beginning of September, the bond yield environment has also become more positive for the euro, and our yield differential model shows that the euro still has some upside potential based on this, or can reach the 1.1200 level.

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