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International financial news

International financial news

[Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali (2020 FOMC): After the Fed cut interest rates in October, it felt "easy" about the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy stance. I am very satisfied with the actions. For the time being, the FOMC may temporarily stand still.]

[US September factory orders fell by 0.6%]
The US factory order report in September proved that the global manufacturing industry is slowing down. Recent surveys of purchasing managers' indices in the United States, the United Kingdom and most of Asia have shown that factory trade activity has slowed down in October as trade uncertainty persists.

[The British House of Commons elects a new speaker]

Sky News Network reported on the 4th that the British House of Commons elected Sir Lindsay Hoyle as the new speaker. In the final round of voting, he defeated Chris Bu with 325 votes to 231 votes. Lente will replace John Boko, the former speaker who stepped down on October 31. Lindsay Hoyle said after his election that he hopes that the "stains of the House of Commons will be erased" and regained respect.


[US State Department official said that the United States officially notified that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement]


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

06:30

 EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

14:30

 AUD

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

15:30

 AUD

RBA Rate Statement 

20:30

 GBP

Composite PMI (Oct)

20:30

 GBP

Services PMI (Oct)

22:00

 BRL

BCB Copom Meeting Minutes 



Summary of investment bank views

ING: US dollar remains attractive




ING's analysts believe that the euro's net position against the dollar remains unchanged, in line with recent history, indicating that despite the risk sentiment or weakening the dollar's ability to hedge, the market's demand for the dollar is still strong. In addition, since the beginning of October, the yen's net short position growth has slowed down during the reference week. The data shows that the Canadian dollar is still the largest holding of long positions in the G10 currency. Given that the reference cycle did not cover the recent recent meeting of the Central Bank, the central bank's doves turned to a serious impact on the Canadian dollar. We expect the Canadian dollar's net position to be revised after the data is updated next Monday.


The Fed may have ended its preventive rate cuts, and Goldman Sachs recommends a neutral US dollar deal.




The Goldman Sachs strategist said that given that the Fed may have ended its preventive rate cut, it is time to establish a defensive portfolio with a lower defensive performance and a better performance in the global economy. They recommend making dollar-neutral emerging market currency arbitrage, or G-10 currency trading with “deep value but sensitivity to economic growth”. Goldman Sachs currently believes that there is no strong reason for the dollar to fall widely.

Goldman Sachs strategists said that the premise of the depreciation of the US dollar is that there are more signs of global growth picking up, and that US interest rates may be lowered, and the future path of US-China trade relations is clearer. At the same time, Goldman Sachs no longer recommends a long rupee against the offshore renminbi, saying that the recent trade situation has kept it cautious.


Mitsubishi UFJ Bank: Three reasons to support Johnson's victory in the election, the pound is expected to strengthen and strengthen




MUFG wrote on Monday that three reasons indicate that the British election may be difficult to replicate the dramatic results of 2017, and that Johnson will win overall. Now enter the election mode or pay close attention to the trend of the polls. Our cautious view of Johnson's victory is justified. Looking back at the results of the FT poll in April 2017, the Conservative Party had led the Labour Party up to 16 points, but in the June election, it actually fell back to 6 points, and the Conservative Party lost its victory.

Citibank: The next key position of the Australian dollar against the US dollar - 0.6954




Citibank discussed the technical outlook for the Australian dollar against the US dollar on Monday, saying it maintains a bullish bias and stressed that it will continue to short the currency pair with a target of 0.7080. The next important position for the exchange rate is the 200-day moving average of 0.6954. This moving average has limited every rebound since March 2018, a total of five times. So this position will be crucial in the next move. If it can break through, it will form a double bottom and pave the way to the target 0.71. Looking ahead, Tuesday will welcome the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (expected not to have much volatility), trade balance data on November 7 and the Reserve Bank of Australia statement announced on November 8.


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