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International financial news


[Federal Beige Book: It is expected that enterprises will continue to expand, but many enterprises have lowered their outlook] Household expenditure is stable, manufacturing is weak, and the property market is basically unchanged. The impact of the auto industry has been limited; wages and prices have risen moderately; trade Tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth have put pressure on economic activity.

[Trump: Will try to avoid "harsh" tariffs on the EU] US President Trump said he and Italian President Matarella discussed the economy and investment of the two countries at the White House earlier. At a joint press conference in Washington, Trump welcomed Italy's support for a mutually beneficial trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, saying that he will now try to resolve the trade imbalance with the EU without "harsh" tariffs.

[European Central Bank Management Committee, German Central Bank Governor Weidmann: There is no large-scale economy participating in competitive currency depreciation] Germany may implement some additional fiscal stimulus. As long as the outlook does not deteriorate, no additional fiscal stimulus is needed.

[Chicago Fed President Evans: The Fed may want to cut interest rates again] Evans said, I think we have made quite a good adjustment. A rate cut again will make me more convinced that inflation is definitely likely to rise to 2%; buying Treasury bills does not mean that the Fed is implementing quantitative easing. We don't buy medium- and long-term bonds like we did with quantitative easing (QE), which is why we say this is not the real QE.

[Federal Kaplan: After two interest rate cuts, it is not sure about the next move]

[China's holding of US Treasury bonds in August decreased by 6.8 billion US dollars to a two-year low] Japan's holding of US Treasury bonds in August increased by 43.9 billion US dollars, the largest increase since 2013.


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Crude Oil Inventories



Summary of investment bank views

Scotiabank: Dollar rally faces threat of data weakness and sentiment




Shaun Osborne and Juan Manuel Herrera, Scotiabank foreign exchange strategists, said in the report that the US dollar downward pressure seems to be intensifying due to the weak US economic data and the possibility of further interest rate cuts. The weak US retail data released on Wednesday has put Fed policymakers under pressure to “take more preventive easing measures” at this month's meeting. The US dollar performed well in this round of the Fed's easing cycle, but "due to the slowdown of the US economy and the narrowing of the US dollar's spread advantage against other currencies, there is some risk in the medium term that is not conducive to the US dollar." The period leading up to the end of the year (the dollar's weakness) may still be moderate, but the overall situation indicates that the dollar will once again fall into a broader weakness early next year.

Rabo Bank of the Netherlands: If the UK and the EU can reach an agreement this week, the pound is expected to rise to 1.30




In the past week, the pound has risen sharply as the possibility of a Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU has risen. There is currently a legal process initiated by the British government to avoid the possibility of requesting a delay in the Brexit. In this scenario, the pound may fall sharply, the euro against the pound may jump to parity, and the pound against the dollar may fall to 1.10. Before the UK and the EU reach a final agreement, there are certain possibilities for early elections and delays in Brexit. For this reason, we believe that the euro against the pound may fluctuate between 0.90 in the next 1-3 months. If the UK and the EU can reach a Brexit agreement this week, the pound against the dollar is expected to rise to 1.30.


Commerzbank: USD/JPY is gradually testing up 109.07




Technical analysis by Commerzbank believes that USD/JPY has broken above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downtrend 106.48 and the mid-September high of 108.48, gradually approaching the 200-day moving average of 109.07, initially upside may be under pressure Here, after the upward breakout, the target is the 55-week moving average of 109.85, the 200-week moving average of 110.18, and the 2015-2019 downtrend line of 111.05; on the downside, after breaking below 106.47, the target is 106.00, and then the previous downtrend. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is 105.32 and the August low of 104.46.


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