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International financial news

International financial news

[Federal Kaplan (with voting rights in 2020): Very careful attention to the service industry should not be overreacted to a report.] This year's two rate cuts have reduced the possibility of a sharp slowdown and have not eliminated this possibility. Strong consumption and a tight labor market support the US economy

[Fed Evans: The American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) data is very important, and does not believe that the market is overreacting,open to the next interest rate decision. The American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) data is just a number. Interest rate cuts are measures to control risks. Worried about the inflation outlook]

[Cleveland Fed President Meister ( voting in 2020): For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy, the stability of inflation expectations is key.] If Amazon and other large technology companies increase the elasticity of US prices, the effect of the Fed's monetary policy will be compromised. Some special factors are affecting the US labor market and inflation

[The Bank of Japan’s deputy governor, Wadamura, Chang Cheng: We don’t want to maintain low interest rates or negative interest rates for a long time. The Bank of Japan does not want long-term low interest rates to become permanent low interest rates.]

[European central bank deputy governor Jindos: the economic risk outlook of the euro zone is biased downwards] Jindos said that risk tends to go down, fiscal policy must intervene to boost the economy; he said, "the economic activity level of the euro zone is still "Disappointingly low", through a combination of policies to strengthen the firepower of the euro zone stability policy, while continuing to make full use of monetary policy, making fiscal stability policy play a more substantive role, this is crucial." Global interest rates The downturn poses a challenge. “According to historical standards, policy rates may remain low and may touch the lower end of the range more frequently than in the past”; Japan’s experience proves that the vicious circle is difficult to escape.



News and Data



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Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Summary of investment bank views

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank: The trend of the euro against the US dollar is trending, and it is expected to trade in the range of 1.08-1.11 in the near future.

Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (MUFG) released a technical analysis report on Thursday, saying that the euro against the dollar trended, and is expected to remain trading in the 1.08-1.11 range. A key event in the euro against the dollar this week is the upcoming US non-farm report. The currency pair has moderately rebounded due to weak ISM data. If tomorrow's data is disappointing again, I believe there is room for further rebound in the currency pair.

Trade negotiations next week are expected to be a key macro factor, but we do not believe that this will cause significant changes in the mood, and believe that the uncertainty of trade relations will continue. Considering that there is no data released in the Eurozone next week, we believe that the pair will maintain a narrow range of shocks.

Goldman Sachs: After the release of ISM data, the yen remains the “main opportunity” in the G-10 currency.

Zach Pandl, co-head of Global Forex and Emerging Markets Strategy at Goldman Sachs Group, said that it is still too early to predict that the dollar will fall across the board, but the yen is still the "main opportunity" in the G10 currency. Despite the disappointing ISM report on manufacturing and services this week, the “safe haven property” of the dollar may still support the dollar. However, he wrote: "The dollar should obviously underperform the yen, and may even run the euro and the pound."

Westpac Bank: The New Zealand dollar is still in a downtrend for several months, with the lower target at 0.6130

Westpac analyst Speizer said that the New Zealand dollar is still in a downtrend for several months, with the lower target at 0.6130. Although the strength of the US dollar is the main driver of the NZD's decline against the US dollar, the fundamentals of the New Zealand dollar are also under pressure. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's Business Confidence Survey did not perform as well. The data is closely watched by the New Zealand Federal Reserve. The data also suggests that New Zealand's GDP will slow further. New Zealand's third-quarter GDP is expected to grow by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, and GDP growth will slow to 2.0%.

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